Did anyone see the BBC One's Weather forecast at 07:15AM Friday morning, it
looked at though the East of England including the Midlands was going to
have persistant snow at the weekend.

Saw the forecast later however at it had completely changed! Snow now
forecase to just Scotland and possible N. England.

We still haven't had any decent snow in Leicestershire! (10-20cms) This
Winter

I can tell you: here. Woken to 1 cm or so, and still snowing lightly.
And they're supposed to be building our greenhouse today.

Trevor
Lundie, 10 miles NW Dundee
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/

Paul wrote:
Did anyone see the BBC One's Weather forecast at 07:15AM Friday
morning, it looked at though the East of England including the
Midlands was going to have persistant snow at the weekend.

Saw the forecast later however at it had completely changed! Snow now
forecase to just Scotland and possible N. England.

We still haven't had any decent snow in Leicestershire! (10-20cms)
This Winter

That the nature of the weather, the forecast changes as more up to date
models produce their output. Plus it's not an easy one to call, I thought
some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the Lake District would be
caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok this morning.
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com

Norman Lynagh wrote:
In message , Rob
writes
Paul wrote:
Did anyone see the BBC One's Weather forecast at 07:15AM Friday
morning, it looked at though the East of England including the
Midlands was going to have persistant snow at the weekend.

Saw the forecast later however at it had completely changed! Snow
now forecase to just Scotland and possible N. England.

We still haven't had any decent snow in Leicestershire! (10-20cms)
This Winter

That the nature of the weather, the forecast changes as more up to
date models produce their output. Plus it's not an easy one to
call, I thought some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the
Lake District would be caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok
this morning. --
Rob Overfield

Not so much the nature of the weather, more the over-acceptance that
model output will be reliable.

/rant mode on/
What is the value of a forecast if the actual weather falls outside of
the limits set by the forecast? So often in this country the situation
is not an easy one to call, especially when looking more than 24 hours
ahead. Unfortunately, the forecasts issued to Joe Public seldom convey
the range of uncertainty. Instead they tend to concentrate either on
what is deemed to be the most probable scenario or on the more severe
end of the range of probabilities.
/rant mode off/

Agreed.

Rant away, Norman, I think you've hit the nail on the head.
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com

Norman Lynagh wrote:

Not so much the nature of the weather, more the over-acceptance that
model output will be reliable.

/rant mode on/
What is the value of a forecast if the actual weather falls outside of
the limits set by the forecast? So often in this country the situation
is not an easy one to call, especially when looking more than 24 hours
ahead. Unfortunately, the forecasts issued to Joe Public seldom convey
the range of uncertainty. Instead they tend to concentrate either on
what is deemed to be the most probable scenario or on the more severe
end of the range of probabilities.
/rant mode off/

I agree with this but, on the more positive side, it is this sort of
dumbed down forecasting that pushed me towards seeking the real truth.
In other words, it spurred me on to find out for myself what the weather
was really likely to do. It did not take long, helped by the enthusiasm
in this newsgroup, for me to get the weather bug. There may well be
others who have followed a similar route. I see the TV forecasts as
being our recruiting sergeants.


--
Howard Neil

"Rob" wrote in message
...

Agreed.

Rant away, Norman, I think you've hit the nail on the head.

Well they have to plump for the 'most likely sceanario' to some
extent, giving a whole range of probabilities for all the different
areas and heights would take forever.
If I rant it's when they 'cry wolf'.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

"Rob" wrote in message
...

That the nature of the weather, the forecast changes as more up to date
models produce their output. Plus it's not an easy one to call, I thought
some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the Lake District would be
caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok this morning.

Quite. And it looks like it has changed again according to the
1215 forecast. Heavy snow now mentioned for Wales and parts of
the Midlands. I'm sure this morning's forecast mentioned 9C for
here tomorrow, now it's just 3C. No mention of snow turning to rain
and subsequent flooding. Is the cold air *really* going to push back
the milder air when in any other snow sceanario of this type that I can
remember the mild air wins?

It's just like 1963 all over again, If only it were January

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

"Col" wrote in message
...

Quite. And it looks like it has changed again according to the
1215 forecast. Heavy snow now mentioned for Wales and parts of
the Midlands. I'm sure this morning's forecast mentioned 9C for
here tomorrow, now it's just 3C. No mention of snow turning to rain
and subsequent flooding. Is the cold air *really* going to push back
the milder air when in any other snow sceanario of this type that I can
remember the mild air wins?

It's just like 1963 all over again, If only it were January


Sorry, I meant 9C for here on Monday, not tomorrow.
Monday was supossed to be the day when the mild air came over!

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

On Sat, 11 Mar 2006 10:19:10 -0000, Rob wrote:

some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the Lake District would
be caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok this morning.

Wouldn't be so sure, we have had white stuff blowing in the wind since
yesterday morning and it looks as if it might have put down a scattering
sometime over night. Temp is *just* above 0C at 1400', GDF is reporting
-3C, cloud base is about 2000' and the grey snow line about 1800'.
Looking at the radar The Lakes where getting something for most of the
morning, we weren't (and aren't).

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

Dave Liquorice wrote:
On Sat, 11 Mar 2006 10:19:10 -0000, Rob wrote:

some friends of mine going up Scafell Pike in the Lake District would
be caught in it, but it looks like they're be ok this morning.

Wouldn't be so sure, we have had white stuff blowing in the wind since
yesterday morning and it looks as if it might have put down a
scattering sometime over night. Temp is *just* above 0C at 1400', GDF
is reporting -3C, cloud base is about 2000' and the grey snow line
about 1800'. Looking at the radar The Lakes where getting something
for most of the morning, we weren't (and aren't).

I got a text at lunchtime to say they'd got to the top, but I shall find out
out over the next few days how it was.
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com