"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 23/01/05 to Saturday 29/01/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 20/01/05 1900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

This forecast is largely based on ECMWF model information as that model
has been
most consistent recently and is arguably the best NWP model in the world
today.

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as
an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly
north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.

So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week
looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near eastern
coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day
with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

SE England the Midlands and SW England look like being cloudier with a
moderate
to fresh east or northeast wind, possibly gales near SW coasts later.
Wintry
showers in eastern coastal areas at times and cold with night frosts well
inland. 40% risk of snow showers spreading inland later in the week as
colder
air advects westwards. Low risk of some substantial snowfall over the
moors of
SW England later.

Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with
the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence
low to
moderate.


Will.
--


" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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mailto:
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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I had noticed the interesting trend in the ECMWF charts this morning but my
enthusiasm for the weather that may be associated with such developments was
tempered somewhat by the observation he

http://grads.iges.org/pix/temp4.html

In spite of the very favourable surface chart appearance, there does not
seem to be a great mass of very cold air over the near continent at any
stage, assuming of course that these charts shown in the above link are in
any way reliable.

I still await real time developments with interest though.

--
Pete

Please take my dog out twice to e-mail

---------------------------------------------------------------
The views expressed above are entirely those of the writer and
do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any
other person or official body.
---------------------------------------------------------------

As a layman, I woudn't expect anything more than a slight covering at best
going by those charts, Darren, but beggars can't be choosers, nowadays
anyway. Those charts are such a break from the norm, and that really excites
me! ...hell we might even get a few snow flurries *if* they were half close.
-----------------------------------------------------------

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to
northeast
airflow will become established.
Thanks for the forecast - they're much appreciated.

I have to admit it's been hard to contain my enthusiasm over the past
couple
of days as some of the models have been showing some tantalising setups
for
this part of the world. The last dumping of snow from an easterly here (in
north Kent) was January 1997, and back then I wasn't aware of all the
online
charts. Heck, I didn't even know usw existed!

I've often wondered what the models would do in the runup to an easterly
and
maybe, just maybe I'm about to find out!

Then again - the way the high remains anchored to the west intrigues me,
as
I'd always assumed you'd need a Scandinavian High to bring sustained cold,
yet from some of the runs of late it seems that's not the case....

BL, I think you are going to be very disappointed in the years to come.
-----------------------------------------------------------

It's been a bitterly disappointing winter thus far.

This is supposed to be the winter season. One or two decent cold spells
should really be expected
since our winters last for at least three months.

BL, I think you are going to be very disappointed in the years to
come.

As a layman, I woudn't expect anything more than a slight covering at
best
going by those charts, Darren, but beggars can't be choosers,
nowadays
anyway. Those charts are such a break from the norm, and that really
excites
me! ...hell we might even get a few snow flurries *if* they were half
close.

Dammit.

NO ONE takes my DREAMS. NO ONE!

D.

In article .com,
Damien writes:
danny:

It all looks great at this stage, but something tells me it won't
come off
;0( . Lol!

Could that be memories of 2002(!), or the fact that we are currently
still living under capitalism?

How do you explain 1962-3, which occurred when we had a Conservative
government?
--
John Hall

"Distrust any enterprise that requires new clothes."
Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)

"Pete B" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
snip
I had noticed the interesting trend in the ECMWF charts this morning but my
enthusiasm for the weather that may be associated with such developments was
tempered somewhat by the observation he

http://grads.iges.org/pix/temp4.html

In spite of the very favourable surface chart appearance, there does not
seem to be a great mass of very cold air over the near continent at any
stage, assuming of course that these charts shown in the above link are in
any way reliable.

I still await real time developments with interest though.

--
Pete

Which is why I didn't go OTT and go for widespread snow under deep cold pools
etc.
Not that they can entirely ruled out of course !

Will.
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message news:csovtc$bad$1$

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as
an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly
north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

Oh -- I SO hope you are right -- that would be "wonderful"
A dry 24 hours would be just such a remarkable event


So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week
looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near eastern
coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day
with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

Oh BLISS -- oh JOY -- with no sarcasm :~))


Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with
the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence
low to
moderate.

everything that can be is crossed
:~)))

--

regards
Jill Bowis

Pure bred utility chickens and ducks
Housing; Equipment, Books, Videos, Gifts
Herbaceous; Herb and Alpine nursery
Holidays in Scotland and Wales
http://www.kintaline.co.uk

How do you explain 1962-3, which occurred when we had a Conservative
government?

The Brezhnev-era was just beginning in the Soviet Union, beginning what
many elderly Russians and Ukrainians still refer to as the "best era"
for life in the old Soviet Union. Of course, his long rule saw an
almost complete alleviation of poverty and homelessness from Moscow
right down to Tashkent. Capitalist Britain, by comparison, now, in the
TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY(!), STILL retains an unusually large homeless
"population", who have to endure its rain on top of Prince Harry's
Nazism, Tony Blair's New "Labour", and endless migrants from unsocial
countries stealing European resources.

D.

....... but are you feeling yourself?

Blimey Paul - it wasn't that good ;-)

Dave

So perhaps winter is yet dead

Personally I had written off this weekend's expected cold weather as
just another 2 day wonder before zonality set in, as has happened
with
northerly outbreaks so many times in recent years.

Looking forward to interesting times

While those last two statements are indeed directly contradictory, you
are, in general, spot on.

How on Earth can you talk of possibly "Looking forward to interesting
times " while admitting that the so-called "winer" of 2005 IS
actually dead and buried?

Either way, anyhow, it looks like the polar bears are going back in the
box for another year.:-)

D.