================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 23/01/05 to Saturday 29/01/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 20/01/05 1900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

This forecast is largely based on ECMWF model information as that model has been
most consistent recently and is arguably the best NWP model in the world today.

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.

So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near eastern coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

SE England the Midlands and SW England look like being cloudier with a moderate
to fresh east or northeast wind, possibly gales near SW coasts later. Wintry
showers in eastern coastal areas at times and cold with night frosts well
inland. 40% risk of snow showers spreading inland later in the week as colder
air advects westwards. Low risk of some substantial snowfall over the moors of
SW England later.

Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence low to
moderate.


Will.
--


" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thnx for the forecast Will , and I love the look of some of those charts.
It all looks great at this stage, but something tells me it won't come off
;0( . Lol!
Expecting the charts to back down very soon!

-------------------------------------------------------------
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ===============

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may
unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love
for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================== ===============

Summary valid for Sunday 23/01/05 to Saturday 29/01/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 20/01/05 1900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

This forecast is largely based on ECMWF model information as that model
has been
most consistent recently and is arguably the best NWP model in the world
today.

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as
an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly
north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.

So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week
looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near eastern
coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day
with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

SE England the Midlands and SW England look like being cloudier with a
moderate
to fresh east or northeast wind, possibly gales near SW coasts later.
Wintry
showers in eastern coastal areas at times and cold with night frosts well
inland. 40% risk of snow showers spreading inland later in the week as
colder
air advects westwards. Low risk of some substantial snowfall over the
moors of
SW England later.

Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with
the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence
low to
moderate.


Will.
--


" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...


Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence low
to
moderate.


So perhaps winter is yet dead

Personally I had written off this weekend's expected cold weather as
just another 2 day wonder before zonality set in, as has happened with
northerly outbreaks so many times in recent years.

Looking forward to interesting times

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

That's another cheque in the post Will :-)

Funny how things have/are changed over the last two days. I'm keeping
an eye on Scandinavian temperatures now, as yet not particularily
cold, but I see things changing fast.

Incidentally, I have noticed that the past couple of weeks Yukatak in
southern Alaska, noted for being very wet from depressions off the
Pacific has been particularily cold with persistent east winds. The
reason I mention this is that it sits in the relative position as the
uk does to 'our' continent, if you see my link there.


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas. Confidence
low to
moderate.


Will.
--


" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.
Thanks for the forecast - they're much appreciated.

I have to admit it's been hard to contain my enthusiasm over the past couple
of days as some of the models have been showing some tantalising setups for
this part of the world. The last dumping of snow from an easterly here (in
north Kent) was January 1997, and back then I wasn't aware of all the online
charts. Heck, I didn't even know usw existed!

I've often wondered what the models would do in the runup to an easterly and
maybe, just maybe I'm about to find out!

Then again - the way the high remains anchored to the west intrigues me, as
I'd always assumed you'd need a Scandinavian High to bring sustained cold,
yet from some of the runs of late it seems that's not the case....

In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
snip
I have to admit it's been hard to contain my enthusiasm over the past couple
of days as some of the models have been showing some tantalising setups for
this part of the world. The last dumping of snow from an easterly here (in
north Kent) was January 1997, and back then I wasn't aware of all the online
charts.

I don't think there was nearly so much available then in the way of
online charts as there is now. So you may not have been missing that
much.

Heck, I didn't even know usw existed!

Well, it hadn't been going for very long then (certainly for less than a
year).
--
John Hall

"Distrust any enterprise that requires new clothes."
Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)

Don't be too quick to get the party poppers out

Can all change yet.

It's been a bitterly disappointing winter thus far.

This is supposed to be the winter season. One or two decent cold spells
should really be expected
since our winters last for at least three months.

The over-hype on TWO presently, only demonstrates how rare this kind of
thing has become

In message , Will Hand
writes

================================================= ================

This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions
arising from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.

================================================= ================

Summary valid for Sunday 23/01/05 to Saturday 29/01/05
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 20/01/05 1900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

This forecast is largely based on ECMWF model information as that model
has been
most consistent recently and is arguably the best NWP model in the world today.

High confidence for a lot of dry weather in the NW of the British Isles as an
anticyclone builds and persists to the west of Ireland, moving slowly north and
eventually linking with a ridge over Scandinavia extending west from the
Siberian high pressure region.

60% confident that in southern and eastern parts a cold east to northeast
airflow will become established.

So for Scotland, northern Ireland, northern England and Wales the week looks
like being predominantly dry apart from a few wintry showers near
eastern coasts
and possibly some light snow later in south Wales. Cold and bright by day with
spells of sunshine but with moderate frosts overnight in light winds.

SE England the Midlands and SW England look like being cloudier with a moderate
to fresh east or northeast wind, possibly gales near SW coasts later. Wintry
showers in eastern coastal areas at times and cold with night frosts well
inland. 40% risk of snow showers spreading inland later in the week as colder
air advects westwards. Low risk of some substantial snowfall over the moors of
SW England later.

Trend for the following week is for the easterly regime to persist with the
threat of some substantial snow spreading north into southern Britain,
especially over high ground in the SW and in coastal SE areas.
Confidence low to
moderate.
Will,
I just love it! Oh joy! Oh bliss!
I don't want to discuss dynamics with you as I would get slaughtered;
but are you feeling yourself? Headaches, cold feet - those kind of
things your doctor may be able to cure. Time for a check-up definitely!
Thanks for your work and the little ray of sunshine though.
Regards
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS

danny:

It all looks great at this stage, but something tells me it won't
come off
;0( . Lol!

Could that be memories of 2002(!), or the fact that we are currently
still living under capitalism?

"Col":

I've often wondered what the models would do in the runup to an
easterly and
maybe, just maybe I'm about to find out!

1. They HAVE before - remember mid-December 2002? Both Metcheck AND The
Weather Outlook went for HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS creeping/to come INLAND!

2. At least the models are now actually SHOWING snow COMING FAR INLAND,
UNLIKE in 2002, when NOT ONE billed chart actually ever appeared.:-(

BlueLightning:

This is supposed to be the winter season. One or two decent cold
spells
should really be expected
since our winters last for at least three months.

In the Slavic country, it is some six or seven PER WINTER.;-) :-o

The over-hype on TWO presently, only demonstrates how rare this kind
of
thing has become

Indeed. It is disgusting.

Doesn't Karl Marx realise that there are SLAVS living in this country?

Dammit all.


By the way, CAPITAL LETTERS are NOT shouting. I am not angry. They are
to HIGHLIGHT things, seeing as there is, sadly, no bold, underline,
italic, or any other options available on this website. Or are
there...?

D.

Paul, was it you or Will who, I heard, forecast a cold winter in autumn
1998, for the coming winter of 1999, or was it someone else?

Just something that - seeing as he is right now most probably reading
this - Gavin Partridge said lately over on The Weather Outlook
discussion forum.

D.