Looks a bit too Northerly\slack to me? Would like to see a bit more of an
'Easterly' punch.

I imagube Will is holding fire for the time being as I wouldn't say
it's a fore gone conclusion next week. But I don't like this Northerly
/ NW'ly look of things, I'm getting bored again !


Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 11:41:47 -0000, "danny \(west kent\)"
wrote:

Looks a bit too Northerly\slack to me? Would like to see a bit more of an
'Easterly' punch.

Danny, high looks like sticking to west of Scotland, keeping southern britain in
a northeasterly. You are probably best placed of anyone to get some snow. I'm
discounting the GFS idea of the high toppling and going with UKMO and ECMWF as
they back each other up. An easterly later on in the week is still very much "on
the cards", so no changes.

Will.
--

"danny (west kent)" wrote in message
.. .
Looks a bit too Northerly\slack to me? Would like to see a bit more of an
'Easterly' punch.

Thanks for that Will. I see what you mean with ECMWF and UKMO, I guess
we won't realy know which way it going to fall till early next week. I
think this is probable the best / last chance this winter of things
turning, if it wants to. In the balance atm I recon.

It's been pretty calm here in Southend-on-Sea this morning, although
in the last hour the 'breeze' has swung to the ENE 3mph max. Lots of
cirrus and a max of 6.3°c today.

Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 13:41:55 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

Danny, high looks like sticking to west of Scotland, keeping southern britain in
a northeasterly. You are probably best placed of anyone to get some snow. I'm
discounting the GFS idea of the high toppling and going with UKMO and ECMWF as
they back each other up. An easterly later on in the week is still very much "on
the cards", so no changes.

Will.

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Danny, high looks like sticking to west of Scotland, keeping southern
britain in
a northeasterly. You are probably best placed of anyone to get some snow.
I'm
discounting the GFS idea of the high toppling and going with UKMO and
ECMWF as
they back each other up. An easterly later on in the week is still very
much "on
the cards", so no changes.


Easterly still on the cards? I always knew you were a top class forecaster,
Will. A credit to your service. :-) ;-)

Victor

I'm
discounting the GFS idea of the high toppling and going with UKMO and
ECMWF as
they back each other up. An easterly later on in the week is still
very much "on
the cards", so no changes.

Cheers, Will.

You are indeed a very brave man. The Weather Outlook guys firmly have
their money on the GFS, as do I.:-o However, I sincerely do hope that
the UKMO and the ECMWF are right, for once! (What does that - "ECMWF" -
stand for, by the way? Please forgive my ignorance.:-) )

My great fear remains a repeat of the 1999 - or was it 2000? - cold
spell, which occurred in about February, which gave South-East England
A LOT of snow, but only wet snow/yet more capitalist crap to the small
towns that are located just to the east of the Pennine hills.:-(

It certainly looks that way at the moment, once again, I am indeed very
sorry to say.:-( The last "real" easterly here that had a *real* punch
to it was way back in January 1997 - some eight years ago now!:-o Of
course, and we all know how the rest of that particular winter turned
out, don't we?:-(

Still, the rest of this winter looks very good, almost completely the
opposite of 1997, anyhow, even at this very late stage of development.
(I still say that this winter is very much like the 1994 winter, IF
this coming cold snap/forecasted cold February was to actually come
off, + with *some* mid-late January snowfall having of course happened
already, certainly up where I live!:-) )

Here's hoping, anyway!:-)

D.

"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
Danny, high looks like sticking to west of Scotland,
At the risk of sounding dense, what's causing the high to remain there? I'm
used to seeing highs in that position topple SE'wards, allowing lows to
travel to the north of the high and thus bring zonality.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Danny, high looks like sticking to west of Scotland,
At the risk of sounding dense, what's causing the high to remain there?
I'm
used to seeing highs in that position topple SE'wards, allowing lows to
travel to the north of the high and thus bring zonality.

I believe it to be the strong meridional flow S to N towards Greenland,
leading to strong warm advection which is building and maintaining the
upper ridge. Some of the GFS charts I'd consider to show an omega block
with troughs either side digging in.

Joe

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message ...
Some of the GFS charts I'd consider to show an omega block
with troughs either side digging in.
Thanks - I knew WAA over western Greenland promoted northerlies in our part
of the world, but wasn't sure how it was affecting this block.

The 12z GFS shows something not far from an omega block:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn542.gif

All too soon the high sinks southwards as with the 6z run. Whatever happens,
this synoptic setup is pretty interesting, as is the way the models are
handling it...

All too soon the high sinks southwards as with the 6z run. Whatever
happens,
this synoptic setup is pretty interesting, as is the way the models
are
handling it..

Agreed. I have never seen the models tackle an easterly before, so
witnessing near-first-hand the evolution of this present pressure
pattern is indeed very intriguing and interesting!:-)

Just goes to show how rare it all still is, though... as a gritter goes
past my house once again this decade, thus far.;-)

D.