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Old April 4th 06, 06:45 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (4/04/06)

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Saturday. Issued
0541z, 4 Apr 06.

The runs are mixed today. Generally the picture is a chilly one, but there
are massive differences regarding the location of low pressure. MetO, for
example, keeps it over Scandinavia, whereas GFS has it affecting Scotland
and Northern Ireland. Both GFS and ECM hint at low pressure moving up from
the south into next week, which would ensure all areas of the UK see rain at
some stage in the next 5 to 7 days. However, with models such as the MetO
keeping the lows at bay, confidence in an unsettled outlook is only
moderate. As ever, more runs are needed.

ECMWF: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure is close to NE Scotland, leading to NW'lies for Scotland and
westerlies or WSW'lies elsewhere. The winds become NW'lies for most at T+144
as the low moves slowly eastwards, followed by NE'lies over England, Wales
and Northern Ireland at T+168 as complex low pressure deepens over Biscay.
Scotland, meanwhile, lies under NW'lies.

MetO: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rukm1201.gif
MetO brings a NW'ly flow over the UK, with low pressure well to the NE and a
high to the SW of Iceland. The high sinks southwards at T+144, maintaining
NW'lies over the UK.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
SW'lies and southerlies cover the UK, due to a low to the west of Scotland.
The low fills and loses its identity at T+144, with a new low moving over
France. Winds are light and chilly NE'lies over the UK, followed by stronger
NE'lies at T+168 as the French low deepens and becomes complex.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
Northerlies and NW'lies cover the UK, with lows to the north and south.

JMA: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rjma1201.gif
Unavailable again.

NOGAPS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/ngp10.prp.120.europeg.gif
A trough covers the UK, bringing heavy rain over northern England and the
Midlands. Winds are SE'lies to the north and SW'lies to the south.



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