Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Thanks,

James
www.ipswichweather.net
--

V-Tec wrote:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Thanks,

James
www.ipswichweather.net

27.6°c max (so far) here at Southend-on-Sea, certainly warming than I
expected today. Warmest this year.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

V-Tec wrote:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Thanks,

James
www.ipswichweather.net

They aren't nearly as bad as you say (5 - 7 degrees out
consistently?). The reason for today's error is because the wind has
veered SW and so is no longer the onshore SE'ly that had been forecast.
The area affected is quite small - only the SE and E Anglia and I'd
say it was a difficult call.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

In article ,
V-Tec writes:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Where do you get your forecasts from? Those that I've seen have
suggested temperatures much closer to what you're actually experiencing.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
V-Tec writes:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Where do you get your forecasts from? Those that I've seen have
suggested temperatures much closer to what you're actually
experiencing.

Most have updated now - but Google for instance - still says 22 max, partly
cloudy, Current 27!

--

In article ,
V-Tec writes:
John Hall wrote:
In article ,
V-Tec writes:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Where do you get your forecasts from? Those that I've seen have
suggested temperatures much closer to what you're actually
experiencing.

Most have updated now - but Google for instance - still says 22 max, partly
cloudy, Current 27!


I don't know where Google get their forecasts from - probably from one
of the proliferation of independent forecasting organisations. You'd do
much better to go to the Met Office's own site.

http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/eastern.html

is quoting a max of 30C for East Anglia. However

http://www.meto.gov.uk/lib/includes/...y/ipswich.html

is only giving 25C as a max for Ipswich itself.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)

On Sun, 11 Jun 2006 14:29:59 +0100, "V-Tec" wrote:

Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in Ipswich -
confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

I don't understand this, the BBC News 24 weather forecasts that I
heard yesterday evening forecast maxima in parts of Eastern England
of 29 to 30 degrees C.. which is correct. I remember thinking "Wow!".

Perhaps you (and all of us) should ignore internet website forecasts,
potted 10 second radio forecasts and any "bimbo" forecasts broadcast
on the other TV stations?

--
Dave

V-Tec wrote:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

I was not surprised at all today. But I have learnt over the years to
look at raw data. Perhaps that is what you should do rather than
naively believing without question one particular source.

As far as I am concerned, today's forecasts (using raw data) have been
spot on.

Jack

wrote:
V-Tec wrote:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

I was not surprised at all today. But I have learnt over the years to
look at raw data. Perhaps that is what you should do rather than
naively believing without question one particular source.

As far as I am concerned, today's forecasts (using raw data) have been
spot on.

Jack

I would imagine Google's data is raw data (if you mean unaltered model data)
but may be at a gridpoint just offshore.

--
Stuart Brooks
Carluke
South Lanarkshire 223m amsl

webcams at
www.brooks22.plus.com/index.htm
INC new high res webcam

John Hall wrote:
In article ,
V-Tec writes:
John Hall wrote:
In article ,
V-Tec writes:
Do forecasters get conservative at the extreme ends of weather?

It always seems to be colder than forecast in winter and today...

Forecast was 22/23 on average. It is currently 29.1 here in
Ipswich - confirmed by other stations +/- 1 deg.

How can they be 5/6/7 degrees out like this consistently?

Where do you get your forecasts from? Those that I've seen have
suggested temperatures much closer to what you're actually
experiencing.

Most have updated now - but Google for instance - still says 22 max,
partly cloudy, Current 27!


I don't know where Google get their forecasts from - probably from one
of the proliferation of independent forecasting organisations. You'd
do much better to go to the Met Office's own site.

http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/eastern.html

is quoting a max of 30C for East Anglia. However

http://www.meto.gov.uk/lib/includes/...y/ipswich.html

is only giving 25C as a max for Ipswich itself.

The former is quality controlled the latter unadjusted model data.

--
Stuart Brooks
Carluke
South Lanarkshire 223m amsl

webcams at
www.brooks22.plus.com/index.htm
INC new high res webcam