Felly sgrifennodd Graham :
I have a few stats just to compa

Year Dec Jan Feb Winter S/F S/L
1998 4.1 3.8 6.5 4.8 7 2
1999 4.0 4.3 3.9 4.1 15 9
2000 3.2 3.9 4.9 4.0 18 7
2001 4.1 2.2 3.6 3.3 16 12
2002 2.5 4.3 5.6 4.1 11 9
2003 4.4 3.1 3.0 3.5 18 13
2004 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.9 15 7
2005 4.6 5.3 7 5

Just for fun, I graphed the winter temperatures; there's quite a striking
downwards trend.

http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/temperature.gif

It would take a cool end of Jan / Feb to keep the trend going though.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

In article ,
"danny (west kent)" writes:
Since '91 here in the South, with 88,89 and 90 very mild. The 70s were never
this mild that is a load of rubbish that keeps getting spouted by some
quarters.

It's not rubbish, as Graham's statistics clearly show. The two periods
are very similar. (OK, technically he's in the Midlands rather than the
South, but that won't make that much difference.)
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)

I can't (fortunately?) remember the early 70's, but I shall give my
thoughts on how this winter compares with those I do recall:

We had more snow in Shrewsbury in 3 hours late on Christmas day than in
any of the winters 91-2, 92-3, 98-9, 99-00. Plus 97-8 unless you count
April. So it's passed that test:-)
However this January is one of the least wintery I can remember. Only 2
airfrosts, and nothing beneath -2C. Daffodils out (earlier post). We
have managed 2 'snow days'- one a sleet shower last Sat, and one a
short flurry on Tues 18th.
This is a truly pathetic attempt at a January northerly, similar to the
December not-so-cold easterly of 2002. So far I'd rate this winter as
on a par with 87-8 and 94-5, both of which had (by this stage) had some
brief snowy spells but long, long periods of mildness. And better than
those I mentioned above. The last ice day here BTW was in early Jan
2002, normally we expect at least one or two every winter.
Edmund

In article ,
Graham writes:
I remember winters in the early 1970's that were mild and also deadly
boring and predictable. However I don't remember anything quite so
mild. Maybe Philip can compare these and come up with an objective
answer.
The high currently west of UK is not strictly a 'Bartlett' high as the
dynamics were different.
I think they were as mild and boring Paul but that run was only from
1971 to 1976, not as long as this run which is 1998 to ??????? Who
knows!

I have a few stats just to compa
snip

I've just put these stats into a spreadsheet, omitting 2004-5 because
the winter isn't complete yet.

Mean temps
Period Dec Jan Feb Winter Days S/F Days S/L
1970-1 to 1975-6 4.8 3.9 3.6 4.1 12.2 6.0
1997-8 to 2003-4 3.7 3.7 4.5 4.0 14.3 8.4

So the temperatures for January and for winter as a whole show almost no
change, though Decembers have got colder and Februaries milder. There
have been slight increases both in days with snow falling and in days
when snow has been lying.

Note Graham's caveat that the data for the earlier period were taken at
a lower altitude, which may account for a few tenths of a degree or a
couple of snow days. Once 2004-5 is included, the mean winter
temperature for the more recent period may go up by a couple of tenths
of a degree, depending on how February turns out. Unless February is
cold, this winter could turn out to be the mildest since 1997-8 or even
1974-5.

Even so, going by the above data there seem to be no grounds for saying
that the current run of mild winters is unprecedented, unless it's in
its length. However I don't think that a run of 8 mild winters (and
counting) is significantly different from a run of 6. But if the current
run extends for another three or four years then it may be necessary to
think again.

I'm tempted to repeat the same exercise using CETs, and also to extend
it to include the notable runs of mild winters in the 1920s and 1930s.
--
John Hall "Do you have cornflakes in America?"
"Well, actually, they're American."
"So what brings you to Britain then if you have cornflakes already?"
Bill Bryson: "Notes from a Small Island"

I agree with Paul's comment, it annoys me as well

I know winter isn't over yet, and there is still time for a so called
'severe' cold spell

But those headlines last October are looking very silly at the moment

Maybe some more will be said on the subject in around a month's time,
and let's hope the same does not happen again in October 2005.

The message coming from some quarters is the same cry of doom-mongering
every single autumn, that the coming winter will be very severe. It's
getting a bit tedious

The Uk is perhaps overdue a cold and snowy winter, so some people have
realised this, they forecast it to happen every year, knowing that one
year it WILL happen. Then they can sit back and take the credit.
It's all a bit obvious

In message .com,
BlueLightning writes
I agree with Paul's comment, it annoys me as well

I know winter isn't over yet, and there is still time for a so called
'severe' cold spell

But those headlines last October are looking very silly at the moment

Maybe some more will be said on the subject in around a month's time,
and let's hope the same does not happen again in October 2005.

The message coming from some quarters is the same cry of doom-mongering
every single autumn, that the coming winter will be very severe. It's
getting a bit tedious

The Uk is perhaps overdue a cold and snowy winter, so some people have
realised this, they forecast it to happen every year, knowing that one
year it WILL happen. Then they can sit back and take the credit.
It's all a bit obvious

Totally agreed. Let us hope we have no more winter stupidity in autumn
2005.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett Frets
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