Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0538z, 17 June 06.

The models now show unsettled conditions for northern and western areas
midweek, with southern and eastern areas seeing much less in the way of
rain. A series of lows will bring the change, but by the weekend it looks
like a ridge will build from the west and cooler air will be pushed over the
UK as a result.

ECMWF: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif
A deep low lies to the north with westerlies across the UK, decreasing in
strength the further south you are. Westerlies persist for most at T+144,
but by T+168 a ridge to the west means winds become NW'lies for all.

MetO: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The MetO run also shows low pressure to the north, again with westerlies for
all. Westerlies continue to affect the UK at T+144 as the low moves slowly
NNE'wards.

GFS: http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1201.png
Westerlies cover the UK with a ridge over Biscay and a low to the west of
Norway. A secondary low deepens over the Western Isles at T+144, leading to
further westerlies for most. By T+168 the low moves over Norway, leaving the
UK under cool NW'lies and NNW'lies.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
As with the other runs, low pressure dominates the UK with westerlies for
all.

JMA: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif
A trough associated with a low to the NW is crossing the UK, bringing
westerlies to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales with SW'lies for England.
The trough moves eastwards at T+144, allowing westerlies and WNW'lies to
affect the UK.

NOGAPS: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS brings an unseasonably deep low to the east of Scotland, leading to
strong westerlies for England and slightly less strong NW'lies elsewhere.

In message , Darren Prescott
writes

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Wednesday. Issued
0538z, 17 June 06.

The models now show unsettled conditions for northern and western areas
midweek, with southern and eastern areas seeing much less in the way of
rain. A series of lows will bring the change, but by the weekend it looks
like a ridge will build from the west and cooler air will be pushed over the
UK as a result.

But ridges generally produce warmer conditions at this time of year...
--
Paul Hyett (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
news
But ridges generally produce warmer conditions at this time of year...
They do - I perhaps should have written "cooler air aloft", as 850hPa
temperatures were forecast to drop a good 10C or so.
However, even down at ground level that would give a much more pleasant
(IMO) fresher feel to things - I'd rather have clear skies and 850hPas of
near freezing in summer than a drizzly day with 10C 850s. For one thing, the
former would give a wonderful cool morning and evening, with the liklihood
of a bit of cloud bubbling up during the day.

A series of lows will bring the change, but by the weekend it lookslike a
ridge will build from the west and cooler air will be pushed over the UK as
a result.

But ridges generally produce warmer conditions at this time of year...
--
Paul Hyett (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

If the centre of the HP that is ridging is well to the West in the Atlantic
I would think there is a chance of fresher NW'lies.

Dave

"Dave.C" wrote in message
k...

A series of lows will bring the change, but by the weekend it lookslike a
ridge will build from the west and cooler air will be pushed over the UK
as
a result.

But ridges generally produce warmer conditions at this time of year...
--
Paul Hyett (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

If the centre of the HP that is ridging is well to the West in the
Atlantic
I would think there is a chance of fresher NW'lies.

One good thing about the cold and unsettled May and blocked June has been
the lack of an annoying NW/SE split over England. It looks like this
phenomenon is going to be quite prevalent in the forthcoming set-up.

David