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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Sunday 25/06/06 to Saturday 01/07/07/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 22/06/06 0900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate this week at 60% for all aspects of the forecast.

For the first half of the week (Sunday to Tuesday), all parts of the UK should
have spells of sunshine with light winds. 60% chance of some showers in the
south-east of England on Monday and some more general but light and patchy rain
getting into Scotland and Northern Ireland on Tuesday, mainly western parts. 20%
or less risk of showers elsewhere. Temperatures around average which is 20-25
deg C in southern Britain and 15-20 deg C in northern Britain.

Midweek (Wednesday and Thursday) 75% chance that all areas will be mainly dry
with spells of sunshine. Light winds with sea breezes on some coasts. Warmer
with temperatures up by 2 degrees or so from earlier values.

The end of the week has lower confidence, certainly a lot of dry weather on
offer but there is a tendency for pressure to leak away and that will encourage
scattered showers, some heavy with thunder. Staying warm with maximum
temperatures close to midweek values 18-23 deg C in the north and 22-28 deg C in
the south but more humid and more cloudy. Small possibility of more general rain
spreading to northern areas by the weekend. Winds freshening in the north but
staying light and variable in the south.

So to summarise, a lot of dry weather on offer again this week, especially in
the south, increasing water stress issues in some areas.

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Prospects for haymaking:

Chance of 4 consecutive days completely dry weather at any one spot in England
and Wales is 40%. Scotland and Northern Ireland - 30%.

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Prospects for *some* disruption to play due to rain at Wimbledon:

50% Monday and Tuesday

10% Wednesday and Thursday

30% Friday and Saturday

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Will Hand

Chief Forecaster

--

" COME ON ENGLAND!!! Roooooooonnney "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
snip
Summary valid for Sunday 25/06/06 to Saturday 01/07/07/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 22/06/06 0900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF,
UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate this week at 60% for all aspects of the
forecast.

For the first half of the week (Sunday to Tuesday), all parts of the
UK should
have spells of sunshine with light winds. 60% chance of some showers
in the
south-east of England on Monday

.... looking at the latest GFS (deterministic) output, some horrendous
rainfall totals implied for Kent / Essex - picking spots like Canterbury
and you get around 70-85mm from early hours of Monday to midday, and in
Essex (say Colchester), around 70mm. However, the GFES (ensemble) output
for those points are not nearly so dire, with around 5 to 10 mm at most.
Given that as time goes on, the events usually get 'shunted to the
right' and that there are great doubts about the whole evolution in the
NE Atlantic, then the more modest totals are probably nearer the truth -
but certainly going to be one to watch!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

Will Hand wrote:
snip
So to summarise, a lot of dry weather on offer again this week,
especially in the south, increasing water stress issues in some areas.
snip

9.6mm so far for me this month (W.Somerset)

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
snip
Summary valid for Sunday 25/06/06 to Saturday 01/07/07/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 22/06/06 0900 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF,
UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Confidence is moderate this week at 60% for all aspects of the
forecast.

For the first half of the week (Sunday to Tuesday), all parts of the
UK should
have spells of sunshine with light winds. 60% chance of some showers
in the
south-east of England on Monday

... looking at the latest GFS (deterministic) output, some horrendous
rainfall totals implied for Kent / Essex - picking spots like Canterbury
and you get around 70-85mm from early hours of Monday to midday, and in
Essex (say Colchester), around 70mm. However, the GFES (ensemble) output
for those points are not nearly so dire, with around 5 to 10 mm at most.
Given that as time goes on, the events usually get 'shunted to the
right' and that there are great doubts about the whole evolution in the
NE Atlantic, then the more modest totals are probably nearer the truth -
but certainly going to be one to watch!

Martin.


I agree Martin. I did discount the very heavy stuff but as you say the
"threat/chance" is there, hence the 50% chance of rain at Wimbledon!

Will.
--

On Fri, 23 Jun 2006 10:18:04 +0100, " cupra"
wrote:

9.6mm so far for me this month (W.Somerset)

Up on the Quantocks?
R

Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Fri, 23 Jun 2006 10:18:04 +0100, " cupra"
wrote:

9.6mm so far for me this month (W.Somerset)

Up on the Quantocks?
R

A couple of miles to the East, but close...

On Fri, 23 Jun 2006 19:13:01 +0100, " cupra"
wrote:


A couple of miles to the East, but close...


Rain shadow??!
R

Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Fri, 23 Jun 2006 19:13:01 +0100, " cupra"
wrote:


A couple of miles to the East, but close...


Rain shadow??!
R

Probably not - when Tauton had an inch or so with the thunderstorms the
other day, we had 2mm!

Will Hand wrote:


So to summarise, a lot of dry weather on offer again this week, especially in
the south, increasing water stress issues in some areas.


The showery rain long predicted for the SW over Fri/Sat, associated
with that shallow low has certainly failed to materialise. Lovely sunny
morning here.

Despite the wet May, the very dry June (9.7mm so far) prolonged
sunshine, and often breezy conditions means that the gardens/fields are
now drier than at any time last year. So although the resevoirs are
currently OK, that may well change quickly. When the broccoli planting
starts (Mount's Bay is basically a market gardening area,
flowers/potatoes/brocolli etc) the fields are goint to be full of
sprinklers. That wasn't necessary last year.

By the way, virtually no haymaking here these days. Almost all
environmentally damaging silage. Even the potato fields are all covered
in black plastic, to get them ready that few days earlier.

Graham
Penzance