National News bulletins this evening stated that gas and electricity
customers are paying more for their fuel due to an errant forecast paraded
by virtually all newspapers in late autumn of a severe winter. This led to
overstocking of supplies and a rise of the price. Shame that they did not
use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast. Our heating bills this winter
would have been somewhat lower.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com

"Ian Currie" wrote in message
.uk...
National News bulletins this evening stated that gas and electricity
customers are paying more for their fuel due to an errant forecast paraded
by virtually all newspapers in late autumn of a severe winter. This led
to
overstocking of supplies and a rise of the price.

My very basic understanding is that much of our electricity is generated via
gas and a large percentage of this is now imported. Thus, I find the
conclusion above more than a little difficult to believe. Nor that it's
being put forward by the energy companies as a valid reason for rising
prices, particularly given that the seasonal forecasts were consistently
indicating that normal or above average temperatures were likely
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/index.html.

Incidentally, is there a link to this story online, Ian ? Currently I can't
find any reference to this on the BBC, Sky or ITN web sites.

Jon.

"Ian Currie" wrote in
.uk:

National News bulletins this evening stated that gas and electricity
customers are paying more for their fuel due to an errant forecast
paraded by virtually all newspapers in late autumn of a severe winter.
This led to overstocking of supplies and a rise of the price. Shame
that they did not use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast. Our
heating bills this winter would have been somewhat lower.

I think rather than marvelling at how good your forecast was, I'm more
concerned at the importance of pointing the finger at the provider of the
errant forecast. Any ideas who it might have been, as Jon says the MO were
always going for an average "warmth" this winter.

Richard

"Ian Currie" wrote in message
.uk...
National News bulletins this evening stated that gas and electricity
customers are paying more for their fuel due to an errant forecast paraded
by virtually all newspapers in late autumn of a severe winter. This led
to
overstocking of supplies and a rise of the price. Shame that they did not
use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast. Our heating bills this winter
would have been somewhat lower.

I recall seeing one of the utilities companies quoting that forecast with
source as a means of encouraging the punters to invest in a new boiler,
system, care package or whatever. Must have been Autumn. Surprised at the
time that they had used such a source. Not long after that there was the
start of much discussion on USW. I went back to look for the ad but could
not find it.......

All the best
--
George in Epping, West Essex (107m asl)
www.eppingweather.co.uk
www.winter1947.co.uk

Ian Currie!

Nice to see you on here.:-)

Can I ask a question, about your forecasts? You probably can't and
won't tell me this, but what exactly are your methods? You have a
marvellous track record at calling SPECIFIC dates, that are at times
sometimes entire successive seasons away!

I.e.: Your forecast for December 8 this year, and September 5 - I think
it was - last year, in 2004. How it is done?

Shame that they did not
use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast.

Actually, no offence, but your forecast seems quite optimistic from the
perspective of a snow-lover, with snow forecast in early - and late? -
February, early March, and even early April! IF this happens, this will
be the first time that I have seen snow - albeit, thus far, an
exceptionally poor covering in comparison with, say, 1995 - in EVERY
"seasonal" MONTH from NOVEMBER-APRIL. That WOULD be something, given
recent years. 2001 may well be equalled yet.:-)

By the way, you got the "severe frosts" - although it was only one - in
mid-January BANG ON for my local area. I did not expect to have awoken
to a harsh frost like that following the largely moist and frost-free
November. Well done.

What are your thoughts for the end of January?

D.

Felly sgrifennodd Jon O'Rourke :
My very basic understanding is that much of our electricity is generated via
gas and a large percentage of this is now imported. Thus, I find the
conclusion above more than a little difficult to believe.

At a guess, it's the futures market. They thought they were going to need a
lot, so they bought more on the futures market at the higher price of last
Autumn.

I am assuming here that gas has decreased a little since, along with oil.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd Jon O'Rourke :
My very basic understanding is that much of our electricity is
generated via
gas and a large percentage of this is now imported. Thus, I find the
conclusion above more than a little difficult to believe.

At a guess, it's the futures market. They thought they were going to
need a
lot, so they bought more on the futures market at the higher price of
last
Autumn.

I am assuming here that gas has decreased a little since, along with
oil.


.... the main (weather-related) driver of crude oil prices seems to be
anticipated conditions in the populous NE US, not here in Europe/UK. One
of my 'hobbies' is watching the pundits on Bloomberg TV trying to
predict the prices - they always seem to *follow* the event in my view,
but there was a definite upward trend late last autumn in prices
(reflected in Brent) following the damage caused by hurricanes in the
Gulf of Mexico, coupled to a seasonal forecast from US sources that the
NE states would experience significantly below average temperatures over
the winter: there were doubts also about oil stocks in the US, which
further pushed prices up - there are dollar/Euro/sterling issues as
well. The subject is highly complex - I certainly don't understand all
of it, but I suspect the pessimism was North American based. Utilities
this side of the pond have to do the best they can in the 'global'
market.

Martin.

I think rather than marvelling at how good your forecast was, I'm
more
concerned at the importance of pointing the finger at the provider of
the
errant forecast. Any ideas who it might have been,

METCHECK. However, the media did successfully HYPE up these coming
"events", although Andrew Bond's own TRACEABLE "woolies and wellies out
of the for the first time since 1980s" did not at all help the
situation that he has since so passionately tried to diffuse.:-(

as Jon says the MO were
always going for an average "warmth" this winter.

LOL, tell me about it! At one stage, the Met Office *SEEMED* to be
going for THREE SOLID MONTHS of EASTERLY WINDS from November-January at
one stage last October!!!:-o

They finally settled, after Metcheck had released their so-called
"coldest winter this century" forecast, for MILD-AVERAGE, so hopefully
this will bring a 2001-type winter, as 2001 was indeed, MILD-AVERAGE,
or "slightly above average" in official and layman's terms.:-)

I have not seen the actual long-term chart temperature graphs to verify
this properly, though.:-( (In fact, to be brutally honest with you, I
dare not look.:-o) However, there was an eerily early correlation
between all of the super-long-rangers, going for a slightly "colder" or
"below normal" winter, with the fun and games peaking in FEBRUARY, I am
indeed most pleased to say.;-)

D.

"Ian Currie" wrote in message
.uk...
National News bulletins this evening stated that gas and electricity
customers are paying more for their fuel due to an errant forecast paraded
by virtually all newspapers in late autumn of a severe winter. This led
to
overstocking of supplies and a rise of the price. Shame that they did not
use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast. Our heating bills this winter
would have been somewhat lower.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon
www.frostedearth.com

In the days of British Gas supplies were planned in such a way that there
would be sufficient gas available to meet a winter of 1 in 50 severity and
agreat deal of effort was made in purchasing gas, building storage and
ensuring that the transmission system was adequate. As far as I know OFGEM
the industry regulator sill imposes this level of security on all of the
suppliers of gas, until very recently it was the responsibility of National
Grid Transco to make good any perceived shortfall but I think that this has
recently changed.

It therefore follows that errant forecasts of a severe winter should have no
effect on gas supplies since the possibility of a severe winter should be
allowed for in the gas supply availability. The supply of gas to the UK is
met from storage facilities as well as from North Sea gas fields and
supplies from the continent via the interconnector pipeline.

Alan

My forecast of a cold start to February looks on track. Thanks for the kind
words about the long-range forecast.

Ian Currie-Coulsdon



"Damien" wrote in message
oups.com...
Ian Currie!

Nice to see you on here.:-)

Can I ask a question, about your forecasts? You probably can't and
won't tell me this, but what exactly are your methods? You have a
marvellous track record at calling SPECIFIC dates, that are at times
sometimes entire successive seasons away!

I.e.: Your forecast for December 8 this year, and September 5 - I think
it was - last year, in 2004. How it is done?

Shame that they did not
use the Frosted Earth long-range forecast.

Actually, no offence, but your forecast seems quite optimistic from the
perspective of a snow-lover, with snow forecast in early - and late? -
February, early March, and even early April! IF this happens, this will
be the first time that I have seen snow - albeit, thus far, an
exceptionally poor covering in comparison with, say, 1995 - in EVERY
"seasonal" MONTH from NOVEMBER-APRIL. That WOULD be something, given
recent years. 2001 may well be equalled yet.:-)

By the way, you got the "severe frosts" - although it was only one - in
mid-January BANG ON for my local area. I did not expect to have awoken
to a harsh frost like that following the largely moist and frost-free
November. Well done.

What are your thoughts for the end of January?

D.