Philip Eden wrote:
"Robin Nicholson" wrote:

But I am still hoping that someone might conjure up a few figures for
Bad Augusts Good Julys ref the thread head so I have just tweaked the
subject to hopefully get a response!

The conventional view that warm, dry, sunny Julys tend to be followed
by warm, dry, sunny Augusts is certainly supported by events, at least
during the last 60 years.

Sometimes the summer culminates in a
spectacularly hot and sunny August, as in 1947 or 1995. Sometimes
July is the peak of the season and August, though still warm and dry,
is slightly less newsworthy, as in 1983 or 1989.

Without resorting to statistics, within that 60-year period I would
say that a more-or-less +-+ July was followed by a more-or-less
+-+ August in 1947, 49, 55, 59, 75, 76, 83, 84, 89, 90, 95, 97,
and 03. The only exceptions were 94 and 99, but neither of those
Augusts was thoroughly -+-.

The convention is to label the Atlantic oscillation plus or minus.

August 1994 began with a week of warm, occasionally thundery
weather, and the rest of the month was fairly average with
occasional warm days. August 1999 began with three very hot
days, it then was exceptionally wet for just over a week (remember
the cloudy solar eclipse?), then a fortnight of dry but often rather
cool weather. The first half of September 1999 was uncommonly
hot.

July 1994 had been particularly strange synoptically,
ending up with the biggest southerly component over the UK of
any July in the last 133 years. This month will also have a
substantial southerly component without challenging 1994.

Even before the mid-1940s, +-+ Julys were often followed by
+-+ Augusts, though probably not as frequently as since.

One of the biggest switches from +-+ July to -+- August in
the entire record occurred in 1941, so I've dug out the relevant
Monthly Weather Reports. The whole year was odd ... a cold
and snowy winter giving way to an exceptionally cold and
cloudy spring. June was anticyclonic, cool for two weeks
then very warm.

July's warmth was largely due to a long hot spell from 1st-12th
with isolated warm days thereafter. Some parts of the UK
had a rather wet month, and there was a shortage of sunshine
in the northern half of the country. Mean sea-level pressure
was actually slightly below normal over most of the British
Isles.

August was a markedly cyclonic/westerly month, with
a deep (for the season) low pressure area often found in the
northern North Sea or over southern Scandinavia. Eleven
major depressions crossed the British Isles during the course
of the month. The temperature, which had reached 34-35°C
during two separate spells in the first half of the summer,
failed to pass 22°C over most of the UK after 4th August.

September was simply perfect ... very anticyclonic, very
dry and pleasantly warm with only 1 or 2 hot days ... many
stations reported practically the same mean temperature for
both Aug and Sept.

FWIW, October was anticyclonic in the south, November
was a southerly month, and December anticyclonic/westerly.

Over the last few days, I've been looking at what the EarthObservatory
commentatoes have had to say about sea level air pressure oscillations.
Their PDF on the NAO featured this little comment:

"much like El Niño, the NAO varies in a rhythmic pattern from decade
to decade. Ever since the 1960s, the difference in pressure between the
Azores high and the Icelandic low has repeatedly grown on average for
three to five years and then has waned and decreased on average for
another three to five years.

Though the researchers have not had much luck in predicting the
anomaly's behavior, many believe that its multi-year variations may be
linked to currents in the sea or the formation of sea ice."

Looking at the Atlantic Charts these last few days has shown me that
there is very little difference in the the pressures considered highs
and lows. In fact the deep low slated for the middle of the week isn't
all that deep.

And no doubt it is going to find it's way past the UK and Norway and
end up in the Arctic like so many others have done so far this summer.

Anyone else think the same? (I wonder where Alistair MacDonald is
hiding this past few months. Reanalysing his position on glowballs no
doubt.)

In message .com,
BlueLightning writes

Endless sleepless nights of sweating

That's good only if the reason is an attractive lady...

Water shortage problems, as the ground continues to dry

No real thunder breakdowns despite the heat

You've just been unlucky - but wait a couple of days for another
chance...

October can't roll around fast enough !!

I say October, because in recent years, September has been very warm,
and is really a summer month, with a bit less daylight

But you're not likely to get 90F in September, and the lengthening
nights allow better cooling.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

In message .com, Ken
Cook writes

Hi, Col,

I'm with you all the way on this one. Mean max 24.0C (+5.0C) Mean min
10.5C(+0.8C) Mean screen 17.3C(+2.9C). Probably the warmest of any
month since reliable recording began in this area in 1847 at Durham.

Not even July 1983?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Paul Hyett wrote:

Not even July 1983?

Hi, Paul,
Mean here at Copley is 17.2C up to this morning, height 253 metres asl,
and there is hotter weather expected this week.
July 1983 was 17.3C at my Low Etherley site, height 155 metres asl and
normally 0.6C higher. July 1983 was 17.7C at Durham University
Observatory, 102 metres asl and normally 1.0C higher.
I know it is always a problem estimating differences, especially in
hilly country like County Durham and with distances from the cool North
Sea, but I am using a few years of obs and experience so I'm reasonably
confident that this July is hotter than 1983.
Sunniest July at Durham was 1955 with 255 hours and we are currently on
250 hours. Sunshine is not so easy to compare as we are using different
types of instruments and the Durham exposure is relatively sheltered,
but I think this will be sunniest after June 1940.
Perhaps someone with records for Leeming could enlighten?

Best wishes,
Ken
Copley 253metres asl, nr Barnard Castle, County Durham
http://copley.mysite.orange.co.uk

In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
[snip]
September was simply perfect

So "good" and "poor" shouldn't be used, but "perfect" can be.
--
John Hall
Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk."
Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons."
Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Philip Eden writes:
[snip]
September was simply perfect

So "good" and "poor" shouldn't be used, but "perfect" can be.
--
Absolutely. And deliberately. And I didn't say "shouldn't"!
But you did add a smiley.

Philip

Robin Nicholson wrote:
I may have missed comments about this but have there been instances of
the above?

As recently as 1999. The difference then is that June wasn't
particularly good.
As discussed in another thread, if June and July are both good, August
tends to be as well. 1994 apparently broke that rule - I say
apparently, as I was out of the country for half of it - but apparently
Aug 94 was no better than average.

Wouldn't like to comment on the models other than the GFS suggests a
short, very poor spell of weather in a week's time, followed by
northerlies and then a high trying to build again, influencing western
and northern areas in particular.

Nick