Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Friday. Issued 0531z,
14 August 2006.

The models show an unsettled weekend for most places, with low pressure
moving slowly ENE'wards across Ireland. The models generally agree progress
of the low will be slow, although GFS is keen (as yesterday) to move it away
NE'wards by the start of the working week. Generally though the picture is
an autumnal one for next weekend.

ECMWF: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif
Low pressure covers Wales and northern England, with SW'lies for much of
England and Wales as a result. Winds are a mixture of easterlies and NE'lies
elsewhere. The low fills over the Scottish border at T+144, with WSW'lies
across England and Wales, NW'lies for Northern Ireland and NNE'lies for much
of Scotland. By day 7 the low moves over Norway and pressure builds from the
west; this brings NW'lies across the UK.

MetO: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The Met Office run brings a relatively deep low over Ireland, leading to
strong to gale force easterlies for Northern Ireland. Scotland is affected
by lighter easterlies, with southerlies elsewhere. The low fills over the
Irish Sea at T+144, resulting in strong SW'lies over much of England and
Wales. Scotland lies under moderate SE'lies and Northern Ireland is affected
by easterlies.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Southerlies cover England and Wales due to a low over the Irish Sea. Winds
are easterlies elsewhere, followed by a mixture of westerlies and NW'lies at
T+144 as the low moves swiftly NE'wards and fills. Westerlies associated
with a weak trough affect the UK on day 7.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
As with the other runs low pressure is close to the UK, this time centred
over Ireland. Winds are southerlies over England and Wales with easterlies
elsewhere.

JMA: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif
The Japanese run shows Ireland under an area of low pressure, with
southerlies and SE'lies for the UK.

NOGAPS: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
Complex low pressure dominates the UK, with centres over the North Sea and
to the south of Ireland. Winds are SW'lies as a result across England and
Wales, with northerlies elsewhere.

Felly sgrifennodd Darren Prescott none@no,dns:
The models show an unsettled weekend for most places, with low pressure
moving slowly ENE'wards across Ireland. The models generally agree progress
of the low will be slow, although GFS is keen (as yesterday) to move it away
NE'wards by the start of the working week. Generally though the picture is
an autumnal one for next weekend.

This is good news indeed for our spring. Our water tank (which provides all
the water for our house) is about 1/3 full, and the spring is just about
managing a trickle into the tank.

Is there any indication as to what sort of quantity of rain might
accompany this unsettled weather? I think we need a good inch or two
to re-start the spring.

I ask, because we're getting a little smelly here now, and desperate to
put the washing machine on!

Adrian (12 miles ESE Aberystwyth, 260m/860ft asl)
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk