http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...006/index.html
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...006/index.html

Tropical Storm Debby picked up speed far out in the Atlantic today, and
forecasters said that by Sunday or Monday it would probably become a
hurricane, the first of the 2006 season, which is now nearly half over.

Computer models predict it will turn out to sea just as the three
previous named storms so far this year have done. Alberto, Beryl and
Chris dissipated without qualify as hurricanes.

James L. Franklin, at the National Hurricane Center said "the odds
are that it won't'' endanger the coasts of the United States.
"..Not saying it won't.''

Officials in Washington have been pulling back slightly from their
initial forecasts of an especially intense 2006 hurricane season,
Instead of 8 to 10 hurricanes, as they predicted in May, they now
thought 7 to 9 was more likely.

An average season is six.

The hurricane center began tracking the storm on Monday as a tropical
depression, with winds of about 35 miles an hour just off the coast of
West Africa. It intensified to a tropical storm on Tuesday when winds
exceeded 40 miles and hour.

By this time last year, there had already been nine named storms and
four hurricanes.

By JOSEPH B. TREASTER Published: August 23, 2006 [Edited.]

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/sc...rtner=homepage

In my ignorance I am presuming that the rest of the world has suffered
or enjoyed a normal tropical storm/cyclone season. In which case it
appears that not only are the North Atlantic hurricanes dependent on
the run of lunar phases but the degree of intensity of the other Lows
and Highs in the Atlantic.

In which case the NAO is probably independent of oscillations in other
oceans.

Which in turn leads me out to a place of my own one again:

The North Atlantic Oscillation is more likely a function of the state
of the Arctic than a direct function of the phase or phases of the
moon. (but of course the phases of the moon is the instigator of the
sate of the Arctic and of all the other oceans.) Thus explaining why
the Hurricane season is usually confined to a half of the year not
quite the full summer but reaching its highest intensity with the times
of least ice cover in the Arctic (August/September.)

IIRC the other ocean's have hurricanes all the year through.

There ladies and gentlemen is another example of Weatherlawyer at his
wackiest best. What a thoroughly rewarding occupation my little hobby
is.

Scribbled on a tatty piece of sub-atomic ether,
Keith (Southend) at wrote:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...006/index.html

This one looks like it may get caught up in our weather for next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

The latest forecast track from the NHC brings it around the Azores high by
the weekend...
--
Rob Overfield
Hull
http://talkingtoomuchagain.blogspot.com

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Keith (Southend) wrote:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/...006/index.html

Tropical Storm Debby would probably become the first hurricane of
the 2006 season, now nearly half over.
Alberto, Beryl and Chris dissipated without qualifying as hurricanes.
Instead of 8 to 10 hurricanes predicted in May, 7 to 9 are more likely.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/sc...rtner=homepage

In my ignorance I am presuming that the rest of the world has suffered
or enjoyed a normal tropical storm/cyclone season. It appears that
North Atlantic hurricanes depend on the degree of intensity of the NAO;
which is independent of oscillations in other oceans.

The North Atlantic Oscillation is a function of the Arctic not a
direct function of the phases of the moon. Thus the Hurricane
season is only half the year and most intense at the times
of least ice cover in the Arctic.

9 AUG. 10 54 and 16 AUG. 01 51; should have been fine spells.
They weren't.

23 AUG. 19:10. Wet. This spell saw the return of the NAO to normal,
positive conditions.

31 AUG. 22:57. This aught to be a fine spell with little cloud.

7 SEPT. 18:42. If the NAO remains positive this one will produce an
hurricane.

I can't see it lasting very long though, as the next three spells are
all very similar and all inclined to fine weather:
14 SEPT. 11:15
22 SEPT. 11:45. This could be an exception with elongated air masses
(ridges and troughs with a tendency to form cols around the UK.)
30 SEPT. 11:04

7.OCT. 03:13. A classical thundery spell.
14 OCT. 00:26. More wet. With mists which tend to occur along with
hurricanes.

22 OCT. 05:14. Fine.

29 OCT. 21:25. Another extra tropical will appear here as troughs of
low pressure dominate over the UK.
5 NOV 12:58. And if it lasts the spell the storm or storms will
intensify as wet weather covers the UK.
12 NOV. 17:45. More misty or damp drizzly weather, hence more
hurricanes.
20 NOV. 22:18. This will be the height of the season in my opinion.
28 NOV. 06:29. These last three spells are all much the same.
5 DEC 00:25. So look out for an intense earthquake when the next spells
take over.

12 DEC. 14:32. These spells too are much the same as each other in the
same manner as those of the 14th, 22nd and 30th of September were.
20 DEC. 14:01. The wet spell might overrun into the last spell but if
the NAO has remained positive all through the above this is a classic
fine spell.
27 DEC. 14:48. But it is not likely to return to the winter storms that
dominated British weather around Christmas time not all that long ago.
3 JAN.13 57. Not with these spells.