Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0532z, 15 September 2006.

The models are mixed today. The general theme is an unsettled one, with low
pressure to the north or west and SW'lies or WSW'lies as a result. Beyond
that there are signs that a large low to the west will drag southerlies
across the UK, but by then the models are all over the place.

ECMWF: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif
Strong SW'lies cover the UK due to a low to the NW of Scotland. The winds
become WSW'lies at T+144 as a second low moves swiftly NE'wards to the north
of Scotland. By T+168 a trough moves eastwards over the UK, leaving NW'lies
in its wake.

MetO: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
The MetO run shows a moderate WSW'ly flow across the UK as the result of a
large high over France and a low to the north of Scotland. The winds become
southerlies at T+144 as a trough from a large low to the west moves across
Ireland.

GFS: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/pslv_frame.htm
Low pressure lies to the north, with WSW'lies over the British Isles. The
winds become SW'lies at T+144 as a deep low to the west moves closer. The
low continues to move eastwards at T+168 and fills, leaving the UK under
moderate southerlies.

GEM: http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_120.html
The Canadian run brings SW'lies across the UK as the result of a low to the
NW.

JMA: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif
A SW'ly flow covers the UK with complex low pressure to the west and NW.

NOGAPS: http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
NOGAPS also shows complex low pressure, this time to the WNW. Winds are
WSW'lies for all.

On Fri, 15 Sep 2006 05:36:45 -0000, "Darren Prescott" none@no,dns
wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0532z, 15 September 2006.

The models are mixed today. The general theme is an unsettled one, with low
pressure to the north or west and SW'lies or WSW'lies as a result. Beyond
that there are signs that a large low to the west will drag southerlies
across the UK

That'large low' I think is the remains of Gordon - or rather, son of
Gordon?!
R

Robin Nicholson wrote:
On Fri, 15 Sep 2006 05:36:45 -0000, "Darren Prescott" none@no,dns
wrote:

Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon on Tuesday. Issued
0532z, 15 September 2006.

The models are mixed today. The general theme is an unsettled one, with low
pressure to the north or west and SW'lies or WSW'lies as a result. Beyond
that there are signs that a large low to the west will drag southerlies
across the UK

That'large low' I think is the remains of Gordon - or rather, son of
Gordon?!

And the spaghetti in the forecasts preceding it contain lows that (all
else being equal) have lead the unwary into reasoning that the so
called negative NOA is (or rather was) over.

It would seem now, that with a "negative" NAO, the extra tropicals are
more inclined to flow north as (opposed to west) thus feeding deeper
low pressures into the mix than are coming from the west as in the
"normal" course of events.

The Canadian sourced Lows are nowhere nearly as deep as the Lows from
the southern North Atlantic. Take a look at the one coming along
tomorrow:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2

Needless to say the thing is likely to enter the Arctic and rather than
end at the same time that a large magnitude earthquake occurs somewhere
or other on the planet, there is likely to be a serious eruption of a
volcano or two.