What Ho! Last I heard the Office were going for a warmer and wetter
winter compared to last year. Which doesn't tell me a lot after a dry
and average winter 2005/2006.
I have been away for a while and may have missed the September update -
can anyone help?
Cheers
Paul

--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
What Ho! Last I heard the Office were going for a warmer and wetter
winter compared to last year. Which doesn't tell me a lot after a dry and
average winter 2005/2006.
I have been away for a while and may have missed the September update -
can anyone help?
Cheers
Paul

--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

Visit the office site, it's quite clear you know! But just for you it's says
it will update on 21st September. But why are you interested, after all in
recent years your like a stuck record!

Felly sgrifennodd Paul Bartlett :
a dry
and average winter 2005/2006.

Sorry, I just can't let that statement pass as an unchallenged fact. Or
maybe you weren't thinking of the larger part of England and Wales?

If you'd said "relatively dry and somewhat cooler than average", I could
have agreed.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

Paul Bartlett wrote:

What Ho! Last I heard the Office were going for a warmer and wetter
winter compared to last year. Which doesn't tell me a lot after a dry
and average winter 2005/2006.
I have been away for a while and may have missed the September update -
can anyone help?
Cheers
Paul


At the end of May, following a similar enquiry, I forecast what the Met
Office winter forecast would be and gave the following reply.

"Looking at the SST anomaly pattern at the moment, I'd go for higher than
normal pressure near the Azores and lower between Scotland and Iceland,
resulting in a mild, wet, westerly, type of winter. Having said that,
there's still time for the SST pattern to change."

I don't think that was too far out. However, the last sentence has also been
proved accurate. If I was to have another stab at it, based on SST
anomalies alone, with a cold pool now south of the Grand Banks, I'd suggest
an almost reverse setup with more easterlies and cooler weather than usual
over the UK. However, the SST pattern was similar in 1997 and, if I
remember rightly, it was a mild winter in spite of the SST pattern. That
year, like this, was also an El Nino year and that may have screwed things
up as regards to us getting a cold winter.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Graham P Davis wrote:

At the end of May, following a similar enquiry, I forecast what the Met
Office winter forecast would be and gave the following reply.

"Looking at the SST anomaly pattern at the moment, I'd go for higher than
normal pressure near the Azores and lower between Scotland and Iceland,
resulting in a mild, wet, westerly, type of winter. Having said that,
there's still time for the SST pattern to change."

I don't think that was too far out. However, the last sentence has also been
proved accurate. If I was to have another stab at it, based on SST
anomalies alone, with a cold pool now south of the Grand Banks, I'd suggest
an almost reverse setup with more easterlies and cooler weather than usual
over the UK. However, the SST pattern was similar in 1997 and, if I
remember rightly, it was a mild winter in spite of the SST pattern. That
year, like this, was also an El Nino year and that may have screwed things
up as regards to us getting a cold winter.



Thankyou Graham, I always read your posts closely as I have for a long
time felt SST's hold much of the key.
A couple of things, I keep looking at the SST's but don't really see
much of an El Nino: Yet? Maybe I'm expecting reds across most of the
equatorial eastern Pacific! Although it is stated as a 'mild' El Nino.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif
Secondly, the cool pool to the south of NFL is pretty small and fairly
recent, as the last couple of months the SST anomalies have been high
across most of the Atlantic at our latitudes and average to cool nearer
the equator, which made me think this was the reason for the quiet
hurricane season, until the change over the last couple of weeks, hence
Gordon, Helene and the like. Also interesting how they are taking a
completely different path to last years, must be some other differing
circulation(s) in the atmosphere. I was also thinking that we would have
a wet autumn due to those high SST's. Of course autumns not really
started yet.
I only mentioned these things for comment really, as no way would I want
to question your thoughts, infact that ounce of a hard winter was what
woke me up grin

Regards
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Sorry, I just can't let that statement pass as an unchallenged fact. Or
maybe you weren't thinking of the larger part of England and Wales?

If you'd said "relatively dry and somewhat cooler than average", I could
have agreed.

Pretty average here in the North Midlands!

1971-2000 = 3.4c
1961-1990 = 3.1c
Winter 2006 = 3.3c

Weston Coyney weather station 220 metres asl
--
Graham

Felly sgrifennodd Graham :
Pretty average here in the North Midlands!

I think you're right, I remember seeing a chart with a line a little north of
us through, I guess the north midlands, south of which it was cooler than
average, and north of which warmer.

But it was certainly cooler over much of England and Wales.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

Day maxes colder than normal in Haytor.
Jan 2006 average 6.0 (-0.8)
Feb 2006 average max 5.0 (-1.7)

Snowfall was average with 24 days of snow falling and 9 days snow lying greater
than half cover at 0900 and rainfall below average.
A great winter up here!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl).
--

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd Graham :
Pretty average here in the North Midlands!

I think you're right, I remember seeing a chart with a line a little north of
us through, I guess the north midlands, south of which it was cooler than
average, and north of which warmer.

But it was certainly cooler over much of England and Wales.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

Will Hand wrote:
Day maxes colder than normal in Haytor.
Jan 2006 average 6.0 (-0.8)
Feb 2006 average max 5.0 (-1.7)

Snowfall was average with 24 days of snow falling and 9 days snow lying greater
than half cover at 0900 and rainfall below average.
A great winter up here!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl).

Hi, All
Copley obs for the 5 months (we have 5-month winters here!) November
2005 to March 2006 inclusive were about average temperature-wise with
few deep snow days, so the local perception was of yet another mild
winter. Copley people seem to need to be blocked in for days with
snowdrifts to perceive a "normal" winter!

(Averages refer to 1971-2000)
Mean temperature (Nov - March) Copley Met O, Mean max 6.1C(0.0) Mean
min 0.4C(-0.1)Mean 3.3C (0.0C),
Copley Lead Mill Mean max 6.1C Mean min -0.4C Mean 2.8C
Air frost Copley 71(+7) Lead Mill 85
Ground frost 123(+17)
Rain 325.4mm (92%)
Sun 423.3hr(119%)
Snow falling Copley 61(+14) Lying 50% 09:00Z =24(-7) Lead Mill 50% =31
Fresh falls 09Z Copley =70cm(+5cm)

A decent winter by modern standards, but still just around average,
loved the sunshine though.

Ken
Copley 253metres asl, nr Barnard Castle, Teesdale, County Durham
http://copley.mysite.orange.co.uk

Keith (Southend) wrote:



Thankyou Graham, I always read your posts closely as I have for a long
time felt SST's hold much of the key.
A couple of things, I keep looking at the SST's but don't really see
much of an El Nino: Yet? Maybe I'm expecting reds across most of the
equatorial eastern Pacific! Although it is stated as a 'mild' El Nino.

The SST anomalies have a similar pattern to 1997 but, as you say, much
weaker than that year. As well as the ribbon of warmer than normal water
along the Equator, widening and getting more intense in the east, the
waters around Indonesia and Australia are cooler than normal.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

I'm using the data at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. I
packed up using the other site years ago - I think because there were
occasions of dodgy data which did not show up on the NOAA site. Also, the
NOAA anomalies in the Arctic are a bit more realistic. And they have
archive going back to 1996.

Secondly, the cool pool to the south of NFL is pretty small and fairly
recent, as the last couple of months the SST anomalies have been high
across most of the Atlantic at our latitudes and average to cool nearer
the equator, which made me think this was the reason for the quiet
hurricane season, until the change over the last couple of weeks, hence
Gordon, Helene and the like. Also interesting how they are taking a
completely different path to last years, must be some other differing
circulation(s) in the atmosphere. I was also thinking that we would have
a wet autumn due to those high SST's. Of course autumns not really
started yet.

Yes, the cold pool is pretty weak but I'm not sure how important the
magnitude of the anomaly is. I suspect the contrast between the anomalies
north and south of the Banks is more important.

One effect of El Nino seems to be to displace hurricanes eastward. In El
Nino years, the US and Central America get hits from Pacific hurricanes
rather than from the Atlantic. See
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...tic/track.html
for a comparison of El Nino and El Viejo years.

The problem with both sites is the short period for the "normals". Changes
in anomalies we see are sometimes a result of changes in the normals from
month to month rather than changes in actual temperature.

I only mentioned these things for comment really, as no way would I want
to question your thoughts, infact that ounce of a hard winter was what
woke me up grin


I question my thoughts all the time so don't worry about it. I still think
we're in for a mild winter but not for the same reason as earlier in the
year. El Nino appears to increase the strength of upper westerlies over the
East Pacific and Atlantic and this weakens Atlantic Hurricanes - through
increased shear - and forces them eastwards. I suspect that the effect on
the UK would also be for increased westerlies.

You can go back to sleep now.

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell