From what I've seen there's been very little inter-model consistency with
the handling of Helene but the latest EC operational run is worth a look :-

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca... 2006092112!!/

Jon.

On Thu, 21 Sep 2006 22:01:05 +0100, Jon O'Rourke wrote in


From what I've seen there's been very little inter-model consistency with
the handling of Helene but the latest EC operational run is worth a look :-

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...!2006092112!!/

If that materialises and the low is turning left, I'm in for a very windy
time during Tuesday evening:-)

Getting a bit blowy right now!

--
Mike Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 21/09/2006 21:10:06 GMT

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
From what I've seen there's been very little inter-model consistency with
the handling of Helene but the latest EC operational run is worth a look :-


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...tic/msl_uv850_
z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Europe!pop!od!ope r!public_plots!2006092112!!/

Jon.



Oh no here we go again!

They're like bleedin buses ATM :-)

Will.
--

On Thu, 21 Sep 2006 22:01:05 +0100, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

From what I've seen there's been very little inter-model consistency with
the handling of Helene but the latest EC operational run is worth a look :-

It looks a bit more head on than Gordon. One of my colleagues was
saying today that it seems a long time since we last had a good
autumnal gale - in Dorset!
R

Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
--
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
---

I bloody well hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

108KT Extra-Tropical Storm. Jesus

Maybe Gordon was only the warm-up !!

On 22 Sep 2006 03:27:54 -0700, "BlueLightning"
wrote:

Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
--
...SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.

I ... hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

108KT Extra-Tropical Storm....

Maybe Gordon was only the warm-up !!

But the current track forecast is for it to pass midway between NW
Ireland and Iceland....

--
Dave

BlueLightning wrote:
Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
--
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
---

I bloody well hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

I bloody well hope you get a word processor. I find that sort of stuff
unreadable.

Weatherlawyer wrote:


BlueLightning wrote:
Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
--
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY
INTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING
BEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.
---

I bloody well hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

I bloody well hope you get a word processor. I find that sort of stuff
unreadable.

I have the same trouble with all your stuff.

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Dave Ludlow wrote:
On 22 Sep 2006 03:27:54 -0700, "BlueLightning"
wrote:

Very interesting latest discussion from NHC
--
...SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-
HELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS
LIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A
FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE
EXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.

I ... hope the GFDL model overcooked that.

108KT Extra-Tropical Storm....

Maybe Gordon was only the warm-up !!

But the current track forecast is for it to pass midway between NW
Ireland and Iceland....

--
Dave