As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea temp
charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very little
evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.
Am I reading it wrongly,or have I missed something which is ongoing ?.

RonB

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea
temp charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very
little evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.

.... Perhaps more along the equator, though signs of same should be
apparent at that latitude on the South American side.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

.... I tend to look at the TOGA/ TAO data display from the array
specifically set up to monitor this region: find the main page and data
from:-

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/proj_over.html
(also plenty of reading on what constitutes El Niño etc.)

At the moment, I would tend to agree with you that there is no sign of a
*major* event occurring: even by the definitions found on this site, the
situation currently looks not very far from 'normal', though tending to
a 'warm' ENSO event - especially with warm 'blobs' further west in the
Pacific, which could 'slosh' back towards the east if/when the trades
fail.
The problem is that every appearance of anomalously warm waters gets
labelled as an El Niño, and then a standard template of conditions is
invoked. I'm not sure that is right: as discussed a few days ago in
another thread, these warm ENSO events are themselves highly variable,
both in intensity, area affected, time of onset and decline (and
therefore of duration). All these variables need factoring into the
effects 'downstream', and by the time things 'happen' over here in our
bit of the world, I still hold to the view that our 'local' (i.e. North
Atlantic / continental Europe) conditions will heavily modify signals
resulting from a *weak* event. If it were to be a *strong*, long-lasting
event (e.g. late 1997 when anomalies in the equatorial east Pacific were
at least +5/+6degC), then I can believe a fairly strong link - though
again researchers differ about the 'sign' of it's effect for NW Europe.
However this turns out, it will be interesting, with this wealth of data
available, to try and see if there is an impact upon us this winter /
early spring.

Incidentally, even with this indifferent event (and of course for much
of this year so far, NO warming), global temperatures (surface) are
running well above average: if the warm ENSO event did wind up
significantly, then there could be a general lifting of temperatures,
irrespective of the synoptic patterns we end up with over the next 6
months or so.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt

Martin.

--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

Ron Button wrote:

As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea
temp
charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very little
evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.
Am I reading it wrongly,or have I missed something which is ongoing ?.

RonB


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

Shows up OK at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. Look at the
Equator - not 10S. Admittedly not one of the strongest but looks like an El
Nino to me.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Martin Rowley wrote:

"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea
temp charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very
little evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.

... Perhaps more along the equator, though signs of same should be
apparent at that latitude on the South American side.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

... I tend to look at the TOGA/ TAO data display from the array
specifically set up to monitor this region: find the main page and data
from:-

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/proj_over.html
(also plenty of reading on what constitutes El Niño etc.)

At the moment, I would tend to agree with you that there is no sign of a
*major* event occurring: even by the definitions found on this site, the
situation currently looks not very far from 'normal', though tending to
a 'warm' ENSO event - especially with warm 'blobs' further west in the
Pacific, which could 'slosh' back towards the east if/when the trades
fail.
The problem is that every appearance of anomalously warm waters gets
labelled as an El Niño,

Quite.

In fact I've just looked at SST anomalies for late September (26th or
27th) in 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 & they are all remarkably similar. Not
just that they all seem to indicate a weak El Nino, but the north
Atlantic patterns are also remarkably similar. So all recent years have
shown a similar anamoly to the norm, so the norm is now anomolous!

Graham
Penzance

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

Shows up OK at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. Look
at the
Equator - not 10S. Admittedly not one of the strongest but looks like
an El
Nino to me.

.... well now, I'm thoroughly confused! The TAO display, explicitly set
up to monitor these events, shows nothing 'worse' than +0.5degC or a
little higher in the 100-120degW zone; the map you have pointed to
appears to indicate up to 3degC or even higher anomalies! Even allowing
that the base-climatology may be different, that's a big difference.

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

Graham Easterling wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:

"Ron Button" wrote in message
...
As there has been some comment recently about the reappearance of the
dreaded El Nino,I thought it was worth a look at the current world sea
temp charts (see below ).
Assuming it occurs around latitude 10 south,there seems to be very
little evidence of its appearance judging by todays readings.

... Perhaps more along the equator, though signs of same should be
apparent at that latitude on the South American side.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

... I tend to look at the TOGA/ TAO data display from the array
specifically set up to monitor this region: find the main page and data
from:-

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/proj_over/proj_over.html
(also plenty of reading on what constitutes El Niño etc.)

At the moment, I would tend to agree with you that there is no sign of a
*major* event occurring: even by the definitions found on this site, the
situation currently looks not very far from 'normal', though tending to
a 'warm' ENSO event - especially with warm 'blobs' further west in the
Pacific, which could 'slosh' back towards the east if/when the trades
fail.
The problem is that every appearance of anomalously warm waters gets
labelled as an El Niño,

Quite.

In fact I've just looked at SST anomalies for late September (26th or
27th) in 2002, 2003, 2004 & 2005 & they are all remarkably similar. Not
just that they all seem to indicate a weak El Nino, but the north
Atlantic patterns are also remarkably similar. So all recent years have
shown a similar anamoly to the norm, so the norm is now anomolous!

I find a lot of this technical stuff tiresome especially when it comes
to numbers (that has always been a problem for me) but I had assumed
that the differences were in the region of half a degree Centigrade not
of the order of hundredths.

But that is what the link provided shows:

"GLOBAL Temperature Anomalies in .01 C."

So is it 5 to 6 degrees as he "...late 1997 when anomalies in the
equatorial east Pacific were at least +5/+6degC.,

Or is that the 0.5-6 degrees that is taken as the datum for an El Nino?

The air pressure systems of an El Nino are the same as a positive NAO
are they not? Where the air mass over one part of the Pacific or Indian
Ocean is greatly different from that over the other side?

Thus a La Nina is the equivalent of a period when the Azores high and
the Icelandic lows are of similar pressures?

And that "inter El Nino/La Nina years" are periods when the pressure
differences are marked but not great?

In other words, a cycle.

(It's ages since I read up on it but all I learned was that the
temperature differences average out to a miniscule amount, over the
time periods covered. And anyway temperatures over a period of weeks or
months, are never important compared the the type of weather. After all
we can have thunder and tornadoes even, in mid winter.

Yes these events occur with a temperature differenece that is usually
quite marked. But this is a daily change and it follows that the
temperature changes enough theother way, to make up for anomalies. Thus
rendering futile any attempt at long term analysis.)

Martin Rowley wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

Shows up OK at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. Look
at the
Equator - not 10S. Admittedly not one of the strongest but looks like
an El
Nino to me.

... well now, I'm thoroughly confused! The TAO display, explicitly set
up to monitor these events, shows nothing 'worse' than +0.5degC or a
little higher in the 100-120degW zone; the map you have pointed to
appears to indicate up to 3degC or even higher anomalies! Even allowing
that the base-climatology may be different, that's a big difference.

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

"The range of temperatures displayed is -5.0 to +5.0 K. Each color
gradation on the color bar is 0.5 K."
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/methodology.html

You are confused?

The people writing the legends for these charts think the temperature
can go a lot lower than it has been possible to replicate in a
laboratory.

Martin Rowley wrote:


"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

Shows up OK at http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html. Look
at the
Equator - not 10S. Admittedly not one of the strongest but looks like
an El
Nino to me.

... well now, I'm thoroughly confused! The TAO display, explicitly set
up to monitor these events, shows nothing 'worse' than +0.5degC or a
little higher in the 100-120degW zone; the map you have pointed to
appears to indicate up to 3degC or even higher anomalies! Even allowing
that the base-climatology may be different, that's a big difference.


Looking at the TAO display this morning, there is no data east of 120W! I'll
have to try again later. No - I've found another plot (5-day mean) that has
the missing area. This shows 95-120W to be 0.5 to 1.0C above normal.

The TAO data is from 70 buoys whereas the NOAA data is satellite only. The
climatology base is 1971-2000 for TAO. NOAA uses a base of 1984-93
satellite data but with 91 and 92 removed due to contamination from the
Pinatubo eruption.

Given the differences in data and climatology, and the short period of the
NOAA climatology, it's probably safer to compare one year with another
rather than look at a single anomaly chart. The NOAA site is particularly
useful, with anomaly charts available from 1984 to date (it says 1983 but
that year was also removed due to contamination). 26/09/1997 certainly
looks more impressive than 26/09/2006!

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

"Graham P Davis" wrote in message
...

The TAO data is from 70 buoys whereas the NOAA data is satellite only.
The
climatology base is 1971-2000 for TAO. NOAA uses a base of 1984-93
satellite data but with 91 and 92 removed due to contamination from
the
Pinatubo eruption.

.... I think I'll stick with the TAO array which uses *actual*
measurements of the SST and a recognised climatology. If I understand
correctly the database for the NOAA means is down to 7 years? I agree
that it is more useful to compare one year with another, and I don't for
a moment doubt that a warm event is occurring - it's just that
*currently*, it's a pretty poor affair and the NOAA display gives a
rather too dramatic impression.

Martin.

--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

Martin Rowley wrote:


... I think I'll stick with the TAO array which uses *actual*
measurements of the SST and a recognised climatology. If I understand
correctly the database for the NOAA means is down to 7 years? I agree
that it is more useful to compare one year with another, and I don't for
a moment doubt that a warm event is occurring - it's just that
*currently*, it's a pretty poor affair

Perhaps we should call it a mini-nino?

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell