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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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I think he's suggesting a re-run of last year temperature wise - though
a significant increase in precipitation - good news for the skiiers among us, perhaps... WILD MORE THAN MILD Keeping in line with the weak to moderate El Nino and the tendency to high latitude blocking, if this was a chess game, there is a threat of checkmate with the right moves. It could turn into a severe winter for much of the continent. I think there will be episodes of severe winter weather, most prominent in the eastern and central part of Europe. Overall, when it is all said and done, it may be slightly biased below normal with all factors weighed in, but the threat is that this as cold a winter for Europe as any in the last 10 years. The warmth of the Atlantic in a weak El Nino and a pattern of large scale blocking will mean more than the normal amount of precip in much of the continent. In addition, it will have an effect on trying to keep the west warmer than average; however there is a threat of arctic air coming back mid and late winter and being overrun by the warmer air for the west and MORE THAN NORMAL snowfall for the western countries too. The threat of the "LONG COLD WINTER" will be from the Benelux countries east into western Russia and south into Balkans. So here are the numbers I am looking at for continent From West to East: England: 0 to 1 above France: 0 to 1 above. Iberia normal Germany 1-3 below Benelux 1-3 below Alps 1-3 below Italy-Greece 1-2 below. Poland 2-4 below Scandinavia 2-4 below Balkans 2-4 below Russia 2-4 below west 1-3 above east |
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