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Old October 23rd 06, 04:28 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Joe: 'Wild more than mild'

I think he's suggesting a re-run of last year temperature wise - though
a significant increase in precipitation - good news for the skiiers
among us, perhaps...

WILD MORE THAN MILD

Keeping in line with the weak to moderate El Nino and the tendency to
high latitude blocking, if this was a chess game, there is a threat of
checkmate with the right moves. It could turn into a severe winter for
much of the continent. I think there will be episodes of severe winter
weather, most prominent in the eastern and central part of Europe.
Overall, when it is all said and done, it may be slightly biased below
normal with all factors weighed in, but the threat is that this as cold
a winter for Europe as any in the last 10 years.

The warmth of the Atlantic in a weak El Nino and a pattern of large
scale blocking will mean more than the normal amount of precip in much
of the continent. In addition, it will have an effect on trying to keep
the west warmer than average; however there is a threat of arctic air
coming back mid and late winter and being overrun by the warmer air for
the west and MORE THAN NORMAL snowfall for the western countries too.
The threat of the "LONG COLD WINTER" will be from the Benelux countries
east into western Russia and south into Balkans.

So here are the numbers I am looking at for continent From West to
East: England: 0 to 1 above France: 0 to 1 above. Iberia normal Germany
1-3 below Benelux 1-3 below Alps 1-3 below Italy-Greece 1-2 below.
Poland 2-4 below Scandinavia 2-4 below Balkans 2-4 below Russia 2-4
below west 1-3 above east


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