Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wednesday.
Issued 0529z, 3/11/06

The models are all over the place today, reflecting differences in
positioning the upper ridge near to the UK. The likely outcomes are either a
settled few days midweek (GFS, MetO) or a north/south divide developing
(NGP/JMA/GEM). ECM is in the middle, with a brief settled interlude for all
on Thursday before fronts move in during Friday and Saturday. As ever, more
runs are needed.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
High pressure is centred over the Republic of Ireland, with ridges eastwards
and westwards. England and Wales lie under light westerlies, with stronger
WSW'lies and westerlies elsewhere. There'll be little change tomorrow, but
by Monday the high moves away to the east with SW'lies for all. A trough
looks like crossing the UK on Tuesday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.png
The GFS jetstream chart shows a strong jet crossing the UK with a NW'ly
flow. There's a ridge to the SW and a trough to the NE. At the 500hPa level
there's also a ridge to the SW, as is the case with MetO (although the
trough to the NE is a little deeper). JMA keeps a zonal flow to the west
instead, while NGP places the ridge over the UK rather than to the SW.

At the surface, GFS has a high over the Celtic Sea and WNW'lies across the
UK. JMA brings a trough over Ireland with SW'lies for the UK and NGP shows
southerlies instead, with a high to the SE. ECM offers WSW'lies, with a
trough to the north and ridges to the SE and west.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a ridge building in from the west on day 6, leading to light
NW'lies and WNW'lies for the UK. The ridge moves swiftly eastwards, allowing
southerlies to affect all areas on day 7.
GFS brings the upper ridge eastwards on day 6 and a surface high covers much
of England as a result, leading to moderate southerlies for western areas.
By day 7 the ridge (both upper and surface) moves further eastwards, with
strong SW'lies across the UK.

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days shows a large and complex area of low pressure becoming
established to the WSW of Iceland, with SW'lies giving way to WSW'lies
across the UK.
The GFS also develops a large low in the vicinity of the southern tip of
Greenland, but this time a ridge moves over the UK, bringing settled
conditions for all by day 9 and easterlies for England and Wales on day 10
as it moves away to the east.

Ensemble analysis (http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png - last
night's 18z)
The GFS ensembles continue to show reasonable agreement of a prolonged mild
spell aloft, although there are signs of a blip around the 10th or 11th.

ECM ensemble analysis for Reading
(http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/banner/page.html)
Yesterday's 12z run was on the mild side from days 7 to 10, with the runs
showing considerable scatter by then. There's good agreement though on a
warming trend until the 8th, thereafter the mean shows a slight cooling
trend for a few days. As with the GFS ensembles, the outlook is relatively
dry - suggesting high pressure won't be too far away.

"Darren Prescott" none@no,dns wrote in message
...
T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.png

Thanks for the new format Darren. I cannot get the last 4 links to work i.e
Rjma1201.png down.

Phil

On Sat, 4 Nov 2006 06:50:31 -0000, "Phil Layton"
wrote:

Thanks for the new format Darren. I cannot get the last 4 links to work i.e
Rjma1201.png down.

Same here.

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather
Some walks and treks:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/walks

Thanks for the new format Darren. I cannot get the last 4 links to work
i.e
Rjma1201.png down.

Same here.
Oops - that's due to me cut-n-pasting and not paying enough attention. The
links should be GIF rather than PNG for JMA and onwards.

On Sat, 4 Nov 2006 15:41:46 -0000, "Darren Prescott" none@no,dns
wrote:

Thanks for the new format Darren. I cannot get the last 4 links to work
i.e
Rjma1201.png down.

Same here.
Oops - that's due to me cut-n-pasting and not paying enough attention. The
links should be GIF rather than PNG for JMA and onwards.


:-)

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather
Some walks and treks:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/walks