Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Thursday.
Issued 0542z, 5/11/06

The models show good agreement of another settled spell for most areas
towards the end of the working week and into the weekend, with high pressure
never far away. The upper pattern (of a ridge near the UK) doesn't look like
changing fast and until it does it's a case of more of the same.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
High pressure is centred to the south and WSW of the UK, with light winds
across England and Wales. Further north there are brisk westerlies, with the
mildest air aloft over Scotland. The high moves away to the east tomorrow,
introducing SW'lies and southerlies, followed by further SW'lies as a weak
trough approaches from the west on Tuesday. Wednesday sees the trough moves
across the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The GFS jetstream chart shows a marked shortwave pattern across the Atlantic
and Europe, with the UK under a ridge. At the 500hPa level there's an upper
high over Biscay and a ridge over the UK on GFS. NGP, JMA, GEM and ECM also
show an upper ridge although it's a couple of hundred miles further west.
MetO is unavailable at the time of writing.

At the surface, GFS brings high pressure over the North Sea, with light
winds across much of England and SE'lies for Wales and SW England. Elsewhere
winds are modeate SSE'lies or southerlies. JMA and GEM centre the high over
the UK with light winds for all. NGP brings the high over Wales with
WNW'lies for much of the UK and ECM brings NW'lies for all, with the high
over Ireland.

Evolution to T+168
ECM moves the high eastwards at T+144, introducing southerlies and SSE'lies.
By day 7 the high builds over eastern Europe, with SW'lies for the UK.
GFS also moves the high eastwards on day 6, with the upper high moving
slowly northwards towards the UK. Winds are southerlies and SW'lies over
the UK as a result. There's a new surface high forming to the WNW,
associated with a building upper ridge and by day 7 the upper ridge builds
towards Iceland, effectively causing the surface high to retrogress. By then
it's centred over Ireland, with a mixture of NW'lies and NNW'lies for the
UK.

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days shows a low over the mid-Atlantic moving steadily
NE'wards, leaving the UK under a NW/SE split. For much of England and Wales
the charts show largely settled conditions, while Scotland and Northern
Ireland see cloudier skies and moderate SW'lies.
The GFS brings high pressure over the UK on day 8 as the upper ridge
declines and moves back eastwards. Day 9 sees the surface high decline and
move eastwards and by day 10 it lies to the ESE, with a mixture of
southerlies and SE'lies for the UK.

Ensemble analysis (http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png - last
night's 18z)
The GFS ensembles show a shortlived cooler interlude around the 9th, as a
trough moves across the UK bringing cooler conditions aloft. After that high
pressure moves in and temperatures aloft rise again due to the southerly
fetch.