Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wednesday.
Issued 0524z, 11/11/06

The models show a wet and windy spell on the way for the UK, with low
pressure becoming slow moving in the vicinity of the British Isles.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A trough covers SE England, with moderate to strong westerlies over much of
the UK. Tomorrow sees WNW'lies as a ridge builds to the west, followed by
westerlies on Monday from another trough. SW'lies affect the UK on Tuesday
with a trough remaining to the west.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a relatively weak jet across the UK, running from
SW to NE. A marked trough lies to the west, with a ridge to the east. At the
500hPa level there's also a trough to the west, with sub 528dam heights to
the immediate north of the UK. JMA, GEM, ECM, NGP and MetO all show the same
setup, that of a trough to the west and low heights to the north; JMA and
NGP have the lowest heights over Scotland.
At the surface, GFS shows a trough atop the UK, with a low over Shetland and
another low over the English Channel. Winds are light across most places,
but northern Scotland lies under strong westerlies. JMA places the trough a
few hundred miles further west, with southerlies for all, while NGP doesn't
show a secondary low, just WSW'lies for all. ECM shows SW'lies with the
trough to the west, as does GEM. MetO brings a trough over the UK with light
winds for the majority. However, SE England lies under strong SSW'lies and
northern Scotland lies under moderate northerlies.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows low pressure moving SE'wards to the ENE of Scotland on day 6, with
a trough over the UK. Winds are NW'lies for Scotland and Northern Ireland,
with SW'lies ahead of the trough. A secondary low deepens to the SW on day
7, leading to southerlies for most.
GFS brings less of an eastwards progression. The upper trough to the west
expands from days 5 to 7 but the core stays anchored west of the UK. At the
surface SW'lies cover the UK at T+144 and T+168, with a deep low to the
north and secondaries to the west (day 6) or SW (day 7).

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days shows low pressure dominating the UK, with westerlies on
all three days. The bulk of the action is further south though, with a
series of fronts moving from west to east over Iberia and southern Europe.
The GFS shows a trough over Ireland and Wales on day 8, with SSW'lies over
England and easterlies for Scotland. SW'lies affect all areas on day 9 as
high pressure builds over France and by day 10 SW'lies persist as the
western European high builds and moves eastwards.

Ensemble analysis (http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a wet outlook, reflecting low pressure close by. Over the
past couple of days the temperatures predicted have risen and they're now
looking largely above average.