Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Thursday.
Issued 0520z, 12/11/06

As with yesterday's output, the models show a very unsettled outlook with
plenty of rain across the UK and it'll be windy too. Low pressure will
become slow moving near the UK, although at this range there are still
considerable differences regarding intensity and track.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Westerlies cover the UK with a weak ridge over Ireland. The ridge moves
swiftly eastwards so that by tomorrow WSW'lies cover the UK, with low
pressure to the NW. There's little change on Tuesday, but by Wednesday the
low becomes complex and SW'lies cover the UK. Thursday sees southerlies and
SE'lies for much of the UK, with a new low to the SW.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet on a south/north alignment over the
UK. There's a marked trough to the west (all the way to the CanarieS), while
to the east is a large ridge. Much the same is true at the 500hPa level,
with an upper trough west of the UK and a ridge to the east. The other runs,
ECM, GEM, MetO, JMA and all show a similar pattern with a trough to the
west.
At the surface, GFS brings complex low pressure over the UK. Lows are
centred over Scotland and the Celtic Sea, wiith SW'lies and westerlies for
the UK. ECM centres a low over Wales, leading to southerly gales over much
of England and strong northerlies and NE'lies elsewhere. GEM shows a weak
ridge and SW'lies for the UK, while MetO has a very deep low over Northern
Scotland with gale or severe gale force westerlies for Scotland; elsewhere
winds are strong to gale force WSW'lies and SW'lies. JMA has a much slacker
low to the NE, with light westerlies and WNW'lies for the UK and finally NGP
has a low over the North Sea with westerlies for all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper trough persisting to the west, with surface low pressure
close to the UK. On day 6 SW'lies affect most areas with a complex low to
the NE and a secondary low west of Northern Ireland. Day 7 sees a low over
Biscay and a slack low over Scotland, with westerlies or SW'lies for the UK.
GFS also keeps the upper trough to the west. On day 6 a trough crosses
Scotland and Northern Ireland, with northerlies for NW Scotland and SW'lies
elsewhere. A low deepens to the west of Ireland on day 7 with SE'lies across
the UK.

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days shows westerlies on day 8 with low pressure to the WNW
and ENE, followed by NW'lies on day 9 as a ridge moves eastwards and
declines over the mid-Atlantic. By day 10 the remnants of the ridge cover
Ireland, with WNW'lies for the UK.
The GFS shows the upper trough declining and moving slowly eastwards. Day 8
brings strong southerlies with low pressure to the west, followed by SE'lies
on day 9. Day 10 sees further SE'lies, with low pressure to the SSW.

Ensemble analysis (http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a very unsettled outlook - wet, windy and with
temperatures aloft on the mild side.