Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Sunday.
Issued 0543z, 15/11/06

The models continue to show a somewhat unsettled outlook, with low pressure
close to the UK. Longer term both ECM and GFS show a zonal setup developing,
although as the GFS especially has been flip-flopping like mad over the past
couple of days confidence is low.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Low pressure lies to the WNW. NW and NE, with southerlies and SSW'lies over
the UK. A low crosses Scotland tomorrow with a trough over England. Ahead of
the trough winds will be southerlies, with westerlies following behind.
SW'lies affect all areas on Friday with low pressure to the NW and by
Saturday another low moves over Wales, with strong to gale force southerlies
and westerlies for England, NE'ly gales for Northern Ireland and easterlies
for Scotland.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a shortwave pattern over the North Atlantic, with
a trough just to the west of the UK. At the 500hPa level a large ridge lies
to the east with a shallow trough to the west. MetO and JMA show a larger
trough to the west, while GEM, NGP and ECM also show a trough but not as
marked as MetO and JMA.
At the surface, GFS brings SW'lies for all with a deep low to the north,
while MetO shows southerlies instead with low pressure to the WNW. JMA has
the low over Ireland with southerlies and SE'lies and ECM also shows
southerlies and SE'lies, this time with low pressure over the Isles of
Scilly. GEM has the low even further south, again with southerlies and
SE'lies for the UK. NGP places the low over Ireland with more of the same.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper trough moving slowly eastwards. On day 6 a weak ridge
brings SW'lies for western areas of the UK with WNW'lies elsewhere and on
day 7 a low over Ireland leads to SE'lies and southerlies for the UK.
GFS brings a trough over the UK on day 6 with SW'lies in advance and NW'lies
following. NW'lies affect most areas on day 7 as the trough moves away to
the east and a weak ridge moves over Ireland.

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days shows low pressure filling over the North Sea on day 8,
leading to light northerlies and NE'lies. A trough crosses the UK on day 9,
bringing NW'lies in its wake. By day 10 a ridge covers England and Wales
with SW'lies across the UK.
The GFS shows a trough to the west on day 8 with southerlies for all. The
trough moves over the UK on day 9, leading to SW'lies for all. By day 10 the
wind sbecome WSW'lies as another trough crosses the UK.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a fair degree of scatter after a warm couple of days
aloft on the 19th/20th. The mean remains above average from the 19th to the
1st, but a couple of the runs show a colder interlude.