Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Sunday.
Issued 0526z, 22/11/06

The outlook is the same as over the past few days, with unsettled weather
for all and temperatures largely above average.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A westerly flow covers the UK with low pressure east of Scotland. Tomorrow
sees a low to the west of Ireland with strong southerlies and SSE'lies for
the UK, followed by SW'lies for all on Friday as the low deepens over the
Northern Isles. By Saturday SSE'lies affect the UK with a low to the WSW of
Ireland.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a trough to the west and the jet runs northwards
over the UK. An upper low lies to the west on the 500hPa charts, with a high
to the east. MetO is similar, albeit with lower heights over Scandinavia.
ECM shows an upper low to the WSW, while JMA keeps the low and associated
trough further west. NGP and GEM both show an upper low north of the Azores
and a trough to the west of the UK.
At the surface GFS has a deep low to the west with strong to gale force
SSE'lies for the UK. MetO has the low further west, with lighter SSE'lies
for the UK. ECM brings a weak ridge over England and Wales with SSW'lies for
much of the UK, the exception being NW Scotland which lies under a col. JMA
brings SSW'lies for all with a weak ridge over Ireland and GEM and NOGAPS
are very similar, with low pressure to the SW and a weak ridge over England
and Wales.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows low pressure filling to the west at T+144 with strong southerlies
and SSE'lies as a result. On day 7 the winds become southerlies for all as
the low moves northwards.
The GFS shows the upper trough filling and moving eastwards from days 5 to
7. On day 6 a low lies to the NW with southerlies and SSW'lies for the UK,
gale force over Scotland and Northern Ireland. By day 7 a shallow low covers
England, with northerlies for Wales and SW'lies across Scotland and Northern
Ireland.

Looking further afield
ECM out to 10 days brings a trough across the UK on day 8, with SW'lies for
all. Day 9 sees a weak ridge build from the south, leading to westerlies and
by day 10 a deep low lies to the west of Scotland, with a trough over the
Irish Sea. For much of the UK winds are strong to gale force southerlies,
with SW'lies for Northern Ireland.
GFS shows heights rising strongly over the UK on day 8 as an upper trough
deepens to the west. At the surface, SW'lies cover the UK ahead of a trough
to the west. The trough crosses Ireland on day 9 with southerlies in advance
and SW'lies following behind. By day 10 the trough lies over the North Sea
with SW'lies and westerlies over the UK.


Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a "sine wave" effect as lows pass the UK over the next
few days, albeit with temperatures above average aloft throughout. Beyond
that the mean falls a couple of degrees, back to the long term average.