EGLL 240430Z 241212 16013KT 9999 SCT025 TEMPO
1221 16016G28KT PROB40 TEMPO 1220 4000 SHRA BKN010 BKN018CB
BECMG
2124 16020G30KT TEMPO 2210 7000 RADZ BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 2207
17035G50KT BECMG 0811 23015G27KT=

Unusual to see 50KT on a Heathrow TAF.. last of the leaves down tonight.

Leeds is pretty interesting too with 200m, 40KT wind & +RA!

EGNM 240442Z 241212 16017G27KT 7000 BKN012 TEMPO 1202 4000 RA
BKN007 TEMPO 1202 BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1213 +RA BKN014CB PROB30
TEMPO 2002 17022G40KT 0200 FG +RA BKN001 BKN010CB BECMG 0103
24014KT 9999 SCT015 BECMG 0912 21020G30KT=

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

On Fri, 24 Nov 2006 05:50:30 -0000, "Phil Layton"
wrote:


Unusual to see 50KT on a Heathrow TAF.. last of the leaves down tonight.


It will be interesting to see what speeds are achieved. I was a little
mystified by looking at the latest charts; I also looked at the
Shipping Forecast.
I thought that there was a rapidly deepening Low pressure out in
Fitzroy but instead saw this..

(O505)
THE GENERAL SYNOPSIS AT MIDNIGHT LOW FAIR ISLE 963 EXPECTED JUST NORTH
OF VIKING 979 BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NEW LOW EXPECTED MALIN 968 BY SAME
TIME. NEW LOW EXPECTED PLYMOUTH 972 BY THAT TIME

It suggested to me that there is not going to be a really major event
after all- just a good soaking and associated strong winds. I noted
the gale warnings.

I was expecting one highly distinctive centre, and the wording
'rapidly deepening'(or whatever) from x mbs to x mbs

We will see-off to Portsmouth today and will nip down to Southsea at
high tide tomorrow afternoon.

R

Robin Nicholson wrote:

It suggested to me that there is not going to be a really major event
after all- just a good soaking and associated strong winds. I noted
the gale warnings.

I was expecting one highly distinctive centre, and the wording
'rapidly deepening'(or whatever) from x mbs to x mbs

Very odd - slightly at odds with the BBC Breakfast forecast that had
the big fat BBC important font with "Storm Warning" talking about
70mph, possibly 80mph winds on the coasts.

I also think "Storm" is a bit confusing, I reckon most people would
associate storm with thunderstorm. What's wrong with "wind warning"?

At least this moderately interesting weather moves attention away from
our bloody woeful cricket team....

Richard

In article .com,
Richard Dixon writes:
snip
I also think "Storm" is a bit confusing, I reckon most people would
associate storm with thunderstorm.

I know it's dangerous to underestimate the public's ignorance about the
weather, but surely they know what "storm" signifies? Our forecasts have
been dumbed down more than enough already.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
Very odd - slightly at odds with the BBC Breakfast forecast that had
the big fat BBC important font with "Storm Warning" talking about
70mph, possibly 80mph winds on the coasts.

.... I don't know if you are privy to the various output from different
models, but from what I've seen, the way the solutions are *still*
wobbling about even at this (relatively) short lead time (this written
at 1000Z) will give rise to much head scratching. It's not surprising
(to me anyway) that the various forecasts are apparently not in tune:
each 6-hourly guidance will need to nudge the story - and with the
potential for a tight gradient flow tied to a low that no-one is
absolutely sure where it's going (hasn't formed yet), the story could
swing markedly.

This event shows starkly that even at a lead time of much less than
24hours, there is NO such thing as a 'perfect' forecast (whether wind,
snow, heavy rain etc.), and despite all the computers, radar,
satellites, drifting buoys, fancy conceptual models in glossy magazines
written well after the event, at the end of the day, it's down to a
decision of one man on the bench.

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm
and
http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metindex.htm

On Nov 24, 10:08 am, John Hall wrote:
In article .com,
Richard Dixon writes:
snip

I also think "Storm" is a bit confusing, I reckon most people would
associate storm with thunderstorm.I know it's dangerous to underestimate the public's ignorance about the
weather, but surely they know what "storm" signifies? Our forecasts have
been dumbed down more than enough already.
--
John Hall


I agree. "Stormy weather" means windy and wet in the minds of
the public, and in mine too. If the sky looks thundery people call it
thundery, not stormy.

Tudor Hughes

Tudor Hughes wrote:

I agree. "Stormy weather" means windy and wet in the minds of
the public, and in mine too. If the sky looks thundery people call it
thundery, not stormy.

I think it must vary from person to person - when I hear someone saying
"It's going to be stormy tonight", I would assume that thunderstorms
are expected overnight.

The forecast said "Storm Warning" that I'd not seen before. I suppose
it's down to public perception; maybe it was thought that something
different from "Severe Weather Warning" would make people take note.

I personally prefer the word "Windstorm", which is used in my job (in
the insurance industry).

Cheers
Richard

In article . com,
Richard Dixon writes:
snip
I personally prefer the word "Windstorm", which is used in my job (in
the insurance industry).

Ugh! What a horrible "word". If "storm" could be confusing (which I
still find hard to believe), then how about calling it a tempest?
--
John Hall
"Madam, you have between your legs an instrument capable
of giving pleasure to thousands and all you can do is scratch it."
Sir Thomas Beecham (1879-1961) to a lady cellist