Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Thursday.
Issued 0533z, 26/11/06

The outlook remains unsettled for the time being, with a mobile flow over
the UK and all areas seeing rain from time to time. Temperatures will be
average to mild for the majority of the time due to winds from the SW'ly
quarter.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Low pressure lies to the north, leading to a mixture of SW'lies and
southerlies over the UK. Tomorrow sees ssoutherlies and SE'lies as a low
deepens to the west, followed by further southerlies on Tuesday as the low
moves northwards. By Wednesday the low lies near Iceland with SW'lies across
the UK as a result.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a trough over the North Atlantic, with the jet
running NE'wards from SW of the Azores to the UK. At the 500hPa level
there's also a trough over the Atlantic with a ridge to the east. MetO has a
deeper trough to the west, as does ECM. The minor runs, NGP, GEM and JMP all
show the same basic pattern of a trough to the west and a marked ridge to
the east.
At the surface GFS has a trough over the UK, with a mixture of southerlies
and SSW'lies as a result. MetO shows complex low pressure to the WNW and a
large high to the east, leading to southerlies for all. ECM has a high over
the Czech Republic and a deep low to the NW of the UK, leading to strong or
gale force SSW'lies. Southerlies cover the UK with GEM and JMA, while NGP
has SSW'lies instead.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper trough to the west filling and moving eastwards. At the
surface winds are SW'lies throughout days 5 to 7, with a trough persisting
to the west.
The GFS, as yesterday, is more progressive than ECM. The upper trough moves
over the UK by day 7, with a weak ridge moving across the Atlantic to the
west. A shallow surface trough brings light SW'lies at T+144, followed by
strong NW'lies and westerlies at T+168 as a secondary low moves swiftly
eastwards over the UK.

Looking further afield
ECM shows low pressure to the north on days 8 and 9, leading to strong
WSW'lies across the UK on both days. By day 10 the winds become westerlies
as the low transfers eastwards over Scandinavia.
GFS brings WSW'lies over the UK on days 8 to 10 with a zonal flow across the
North Atlantic; low pressure stays in the vicinity of Iceland while high
pressure covers the Azores.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
There's no end in sight to the "sine wave", mobile pattern of the ensembles
with it carrying on for at least a week from now. Longer term termperatures
still look like dropping a couple of degrees aloft.