Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Friday.
Issued 0528z, 27/11/06

There's little change from the outlook of the past few days - mild and
somewhat unsettled in the short term, unsettled and a little cooler longer
term.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A deep low lies to the west, leading to strong southerlies across the UK.
The low moves northwards tomorrow, with SSW'lies and southerlies. SW'lies
affect the UK on Wednesday as the low continues moving northwards and by
Thursday a secondary low to the west leads to SSW'lies and southerlies.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows a trough to the west of the UK with the jet moving
NE'wards over the British Isles. At the 500hPa level there's a trough to the
west and an upper low to the NW. ECM shows the trough a little further west,
while MetO has the trough a bit further east compared to GFS. The minor runs
also show a ridge to the east and a trough to the west, with GEM showing the
trough extending further southwards compared to the other runs.
At the surface GFS has a deep low to the NW and a trough to the west. Winds
are SW'lies for the UK, strongest over Scotland. ECM shows SSW'lies with a
trough to the west and MetO brings a trough across the UK with SW'lies in
advance and westerlies following behind. JMA also has a trough over the UK,
while NGP instead has a WSW'ly flow. GEM has a deep low centred to the north
and a secondary low to the SW; this leads to southerlies for England and
Wales with SSW'lies elsewhere.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper trough moving eastwards out to day 7. Low pressure
depeens to the WNW on day 6 with strong SW'lies for the UK. Day 7 sees the
low move eastwards, bringing strong to gale force WSW'lies to the UK.
As with the past couple of days the GFS is more progressive than ECM. It
shows the upper trough moving eastwards into mainland Europe by day 7, with
a weak ridge following behind. On day 6 low pressure lies to the NNW with a
secondary low to the WSW. Winds are southerlies and SE'lies over England and
Wales respectively, with WSW'lies elsewhere. By day 7 a weak ridge covers
England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
ECM shows a zonal outlook. On day 8 low pressure lies to the NW with SW'lies
for the UK, followed by WSW'lies on day 9 as the low moves swiftly
eastwards. On day 10 a weak ridge brings WNW'lies ahead of the next low to
the west.
GFS also shows zonality for the UK. High pressure lies to the SW on day 8
with lows to the north and NW. SW'lies are the result, followed by WSW'lies
on day 9 as a trough crosses the UK. Day 10 sees a weak ridge to the WSW
with westerlies for all.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
As with the last week there's a "sine wave" effect for the next week,
followed by signs of slightly less mild weather during the second week of
December.