Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Friday.
Issued 0524z, 11/12/06

The outlook remains changeable, but there are definite signs of things
becoming less wet than recently for southern and eastern areas especially of
the UK. Temperatures on the whole will be at or above average.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Strong westerlies and SW'lies cover the UK as a trough approaches from the
west in association with a deep Icelandic low. The low moves eastwards
tomorrow, leaving the UK under cooler SW'lies. WSW'lies affect the UK on
Wednesday as another trough moves eastwards, followed by SW'lies as pressure
rises to the SE on Thursday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.jpg
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.jpg /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.jpg
The jetstream chart shows the jet running NE'wards over the UK, with a ridge
to the east and a trough to the west. At the 500hPa level GFS shows a trough
over Ireland and ridges to the east and west of the UK. MetO and ECM have
the trough further west, with a marked SW'ly gradient over the UK. NGP also
shows a SW'ly gradient and a trough to the west, while JMA and GEM have
flatter gradients for the UK and less of a trough.
At the surface GFS has a trough over the North Sea with westerlies across
the UK. MetO has SW'lies ahead of a trough to the west, while ECM has a
WSW'ly flow over the UK, again with a trough to the west. There are further
WSW'lies on GEM and JMA, while NGP shows a deeper trough to the west with
SW'lies as a result.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows heights rising to the west as low pressure heads northwards across
Newfoundland. WNW'lies cover the UK on day 6 with a weak ridge to the west.
On day 7 the ridges crosses the UK, bringing westerlies to Scotland and
light winds elsewhere.
GFS shows NW'lies and WNW'lies over the UK on day 6 as the Azores High moves
eastwards. On day 7 it builds over Biscay with westerlies for the UK as a
result.

Looking further afield
ECM shows NNW'lies on day 8 with a high to the west, followed by light winds
as the high crosses the UK on day 9. By day 10 the high sinks SE'wards,
leaving a mixture of southerlies and SW'lies over the majority of the UK.
An upper ridge lies to the SW on day 8 with the GFS, with WNW'lies and
westerlies across the UK. A surface ridge moves eastwards on day 9 with
SW'lies and WSW'lies for the UK. On day 10 a new high develops to the west
as the upper ridge retrogresses and a trough moves southwards over the UK.
In advance of the trough winds are SW'lies, with NW'lies following behind.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The "sine wave" effect of the past few weeks is still evident, suggesting a
mobile flow over the UK for the forseeable future.