Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wednesday.
Issued 0511z, 30th December 2006.

The models are much the same as the past couple of days, with a zonal
outlook for the forseeable future and plenty of wind and rain across the UK.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
Strong to gale force SSW'lies and SW'lies cover the UK, with a deep low near
Iceland and a secondary low near NW Scotland. The winds ease a little
tomorrow as the secondary low crosses the North Sea, with WSW'lies for New
Year's Day. Tuesday sees westerlies as a weak ridge builds to the west.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong zonal jet across the North Atlantic and
much of the UK. At the 500hPa level the flow is a flat westerly, with MetO
and ECM both showing a ridge to the east and a SW'ly gradient over the UK
instead. The minor runs all show a similar pattern, that of an upper ridge
to the east and an upper SW'ly flow over the UK.
At the surface GFS brings WSW'lies for all, with a low to the north. MetO
also brings WSW'lies for all, this time with low pressure to the NW. It's a
similar picture with ECM, although the winds are SW'lies rather than
WSW'lies. JMA also shows SW'lies and a low to the NW, while NGP has stronger
WSW'lies and a low to the north. GEM shows SW'lies with the low centred over
Iceland.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the upper pattern becoming flatter over the UK, with SW'lies ahaed
of a surface trough on day 6 and WSW'lies for all on day 7.
GFS also brings a relatively flat pattern over the UK. Winds are WSW'lies
for all on days 6 and 7 as low pressure moves eastwards to the north.

Looking further afield
Beyond T+168, ECM shows westerlies for day 8, with a low to the north. The
low persists on day 9 with further westerlies, but by day 10 it moves slowly
eastwards as a ridge builds to the west; the UK lies under WNW'lies as a
result.
GFS shows WSW'lies for all on day 8 with a trough to the NW. The trough
disrupts over the UK on day 9, leading to northerlies for most. By day 10 a
ridge moves in from the west for England and Wales, with light winds there
and strong to gale force SW'lies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles persist in showing a "sine wave" and thus mobile setup for the
UK.