Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Saturday.
Issued 0527z, 23rd January 2007.

The weekend will see the end of the cold spell for all as milder Atlantic
air reaches all areas of the UK. Sunday is likely to be the day of change
and beyond that temperatures should recover to above average values for
most. However, with high pressure never far away it won't be especially wet
for most.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A large high lies to the west of the UK, leading to a mixture of northerlies
and NW'lies The high remains in situ tomorrow, with a couple of small
disturbances running southwards across the UK. Thursday sees the winds veer
NNE'ly for many areas as low pressure deepens over France and a weak ridge
sinks southwards to the north. By Friday the ridge covers England and Wales,
with WNW'lies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a ridge over the UK and a shortwave trough
emerging from the States. At the 500hPa level there's a large upper high
just to the SW. MetO shows a slightly weaker high to the WSW, as is the case
with ECM. JMA is very similar to ECM, just with slightly lower heights to
the WSW. GEM shows a ridge far to the SW instead, while NGP also shows a
ridge to the SW.
At the surface GFS brings westerlies across the UK, with the Azores High
close to the SW. MetO has the high further NW, with NW'lies and WNW'lies
instead. ECM is similar to MetO, as is JMA. GEM brings stronger NNW'lies and
NW'lies with a discrete high over Iceland, while NGP brings NW'lies with the
Azores High to the SW.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the Azores High settling to the south of the UK. Day 6 sees
westerlies for all, followed by westerlies and WSW'lies on day 7.
GFS also has the Azores High stalling to our south. Day 6 sees a ridge over
the Celtic Sea and WNW'lies, followed by westerlies on day 7.

Looking further afield
Beyond T+168, ECM shows westerlies veering NW'ly on days 8 and 9, as the
Azores High moves slowly eastwards. By day 10 it covers Ireland, leading to
NNW'lies for much of the UK.
GFS shows the Azores High building slowly NE'wards over Ireland. Days 8 and
9 see westerlies for all, followed by lighter NW'lies for England and Wales
on day 10 as the high moves over Ireland. Elsewhere winds are westerlies.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles still show much milder air aloft arriving during Sunday and
persisting for a few days.