Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0547z, 2nd February 2007.

A dramatic change is still on the way. Colder air will move across much of
the UK during Monday, with a low to the west setting up a classic
"battleground" scenario. During Wednesday the low (or a trough from the low)
will move slowly northwards across the UK, bringing strong easterlies or
ESE'lies and the potential for significant snowfall away from the SW of
England and the south coast. If things stay as they are it's likely to be a
relatively brief spell of cold weather for much of England and Wales, but
it's looking like Scotland will bear the brunt with the threat of widespread
disruptive snowfall.

Such battleground scenarios are notoriously difficult to handle, however,
and the exact location and temperatures are impossible to pinpoint 5 days
out. The potential remains for most places just to see a lot of rain, or of
heavy snowfall across much of the UK. At the moment I'd say the most likely
scenario is for rain for the far south, a brief spell of snow for much of
England and Wales with more prolonged snow further north. As this has the
potential to be quite a severe event (~20%) it's worth keeping an eye on the
media forecasts should the models stay with a similar setup in the coming
days.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
The Azores High lies to the WSW, leading to WSW'lies for the UK. Tomorrow
the high will move atop the British Isles with light winds for most. Sunday
sees the high decline to the east, with light winds persisting for most. The
Greenland High ridges southwards on Monday, introducing westerlies to
Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are light due to a col.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet roaring across the North Atlantic at
45N, reaching as far east as 30W. Over the UK things are much quieter, with
a weak NW'ly jet over the North Sea. At the 500hPa level there's a weak
ridge over the UK with an established trough over Scandinavia and a trough
extending eastwards to the west. MetO shows an upper high to the north and
NW of Iceland, with the Scandinavian trough extending SW'wards over the
Northern Isles and Scotland. ECM is similar to MetO, albeit with less of a
high to the NW. JMA is greatly different for once, with much stronger upper
ridging to the west and NW; the trough extending eastwards from Newfoundland
makes much less progress across the Atlantic. NGP has an upper ridge to the
west and NW, while GEM shows low heights extending from Newfoundland all the
way eastwards to Scandinavia and Russia.
At the surface GFS has a col over much of England, with a battleground
between cold Continental air to the NE and mild ex-tropical air to the SW.
Winds are light across Scotland and England, with SE'lies elsewhere picking
up ahead of a warm front to the west. MetO shows a low over the North Sea
(in Arctic air) and another low to the SW (in ex-tropical air). The UK is
sandwiched between the two, with light winds for Scotland and SE'lies or
ESE'lies elsewhere. ECM also shows a battleground over the UK, this time ith
light winds for England and Wales and SE'lies or SSE'lies elsewhere. JMA is
skewed in favour of cold weather, with the stronger upper ridge to the west
supporting a surface high; NNW'lies cover the UK as a result. NGP has a col
across the UK, while GEM brings the battle lines further north, with SW'lies
for all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings the upper trough to the west eastwards across the UK, in
association with a southerly jet. Low pressure deepens over Cornwall on day
6, leading to strong to gale force easterlies across the UK. On day 7 the
low moves slowly northwards, with WSW'ly gales over most areas; northern
Scotland still lies under easterlies though.
GFS also shows a southerly jet and a trough extending towards the UK from
the west. Day 6 sees a deep low to the west, with a trough moving northwards
over southern England. Behind the trough winds are SW'lies, with strong to
gale force ESE'lies and easterlies in advance. By day 7 the trough covers
northern Scotland, with WSW'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
ECM brings a deep low across the UK on day 8, before SW'lies return across
the UK in association with a complex low to the NW on day 9. By day 10
strong WSW'lies cover the UK with complex low pressure persisting to the NW.
GFS also shows complex low pressure close to the NW. Day 8 sees westerlies
and SW'lies, with a weak ridge over Ireland and low pressure to the north
and east. Low pressure lies to the east of Scotland on day 9, bringing
NW'lies to Scotland and WSW'lies elsewhere. By day 10 SW'lies affect all
areas as a high moves over France.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a brief colder blip around the 6th, followed by a return
to above-average temperatures aloft.

"Darren Prescott" none@no,dns wrote in message
...
Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0547z, 2nd February 2007.

A dramatic change is still on the way. Colder air will move across much of
the UK during Monday, with a low to the west setting up a classic
"battleground" scenario. During Wednesday the low (or a trough from the low)
will move slowly northwards across the UK, bringing strong easterlies or
ESE'lies and the potential for significant snowfall away from the SW of
England and the south coast. If things stay as they are it's likely to be a
relatively brief spell of cold weather for much of England and Wales, but
it's looking like Scotland will bear the brunt with the threat of widespread
disruptive snowfall.

Such battleground scenarios are notoriously difficult to handle, however,
and the exact location and temperatures are impossible to pinpoint 5 days
out. The potential remains for most places just to see a lot of rain, or of
heavy snowfall across much of the UK. At the moment I'd say the most likely
scenario is for rain for the far south, a brief spell of snow for much of
England and Wales with more prolonged snow further north. As this has the
potential to be quite a severe event (~20%) it's worth keeping an eye on the
media forecasts should the models stay with a similar setup in the coming
days.


Nicely summarised. Heard all that somewhere before though :-)

Bit of a change from what you were saying a few days ago grin

One point: the charts this morning are slowing things down a tad. A trend that
*might* continue, this would put Scotland into a drier very cold easterly and
southern England more in the firing line for snow, but always best to stick with
climatology (i.e. Midlands northwards) as that will work at least 50% of the
time.

Keep up the good work - forecaster Darren!

Cheers,

Will.
--

On Feb 2, 8:02 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
Nicely summarised. Heard all that somewhere before though :-)
Having flicked through the group this morning I see what you mean. I
hadn't read your post when I posted though, I promise! :P

Bit of a change from what you were saying a few days ago grin
I tend to be conservative in the main with the run downs, that way
disappointment regarding potentially exciting stuff is kept to a
minimum. Indeed, for a while the models seemed to back away from the
cold even reaching here, after some fantastic output before then.

One point: the charts this morning are slowing things down a tad.
I've noticed before that the models always seem to be keen to break
down a cold spell earlier than is the case. So a breakdown for
Thursday may arrive late Friday, that sort of thing. Whether it's
because they can't handle the colder, denser airmass properly I
couldn't say...

always best to stick with
climatology (i.e. Midlands northwards) as that will work at least 50% of the
time.
In this case I was thinking more of the epic battles in the 80s, or
even the "breakdown" two years ago - plenty of snow in my part of the
world, but something that seems really hard to nail properly. Counting
against that this time is the fact there's no really cold air forecast
to the east, but I'm still hopeful of a few flakes if nothing else.

Incidentally I've commented on another forum about how a warm front
snowy breakdown invariably ends with the snow fizzling into drizzle
here, followed by a thaw. I've only once in my life seen heavy rain
belting down on a thick covering of snow, it was really quite
incongruous!

Word of the Day Archive
Saturday March 5, 2005
Today's Word | Yesterday's Word | Previous Words | Subscribe for Free | Help

incongruous \in-KONG-groo-us\, adjective:
1. Lacking in harmony, compatibility, or appropriateness.
2. Inconsistent with reason, logic, or common sense.

I have since often observed, how incongruous and irrational the common
Temper of Mankind is.
-- Daniel Defoe, Robinson Crusoe

She made nightdresses and petticoats in the old-fashioned mode and sold them
to a shop in the market town -- one of those exclusive little shops with a
single garment and something imaginatively incongruous -- a monkey's skull
or an old boot -- arranged in the window.
-- Alice Thomas Ellis, Fairy Tale

They made an incongruous pair as they walked on: one was slight and dapper,
some thirty-five years in age, with long, clipped moustaches, and dressed in
the height of modern elegance, complete with pearl buttons and gold watch
chain. The other, ambling a few paces behind, was a towering fellow with
grizzled mutton-chop whiskers, whose ill-fitting frock coat barely contained
a barrel chest.
-- Ben Macintyre, The Napoleon of Crime

Incongruous comes from Latin incongruous, from in-, "not" + congruus,
"agreeing, fit, suitable," from congruere, "to run together, to come
together, to meet."

Dictionary.com Entry and Pronunciation for incongruous

wrote in message
oups.com...
On Feb 2, 8:02 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
Nicely summarised. Heard all that somewhere before though :-)
Having flicked through the group this morning I see what you mean. I
hadn't read your post when I posted though, I promise! :P

Bit of a change from what you were saying a few days ago grin
I tend to be conservative in the main with the run downs, that way
disappointment regarding potentially exciting stuff is kept to a
minimum. Indeed, for a while the models seemed to back away from the
cold even reaching here, after some fantastic output before then.

One point: the charts this morning are slowing things down a tad.
I've noticed before that the models always seem to be keen to break
down a cold spell earlier than is the case. So a breakdown for
Thursday may arrive late Friday, that sort of thing. Whether it's
because they can't handle the colder, denser airmass properly I
couldn't say...

always best to stick with
climatology (i.e. Midlands northwards) as that will work at least 50% of
the
time.
In this case I was thinking more of the epic battles in the 80s, or
even the "breakdown" two years ago - plenty of snow in my part of the
world, but something that seems really hard to nail properly. Counting
against that this time is the fact there's no really cold air forecast
to the east, but I'm still hopeful of a few flakes if nothing else.

Incidentally I've commented on another forum about how a warm front
snowy breakdown invariably ends with the snow fizzling into drizzle
here, followed by a thaw. I've only once in my life seen heavy rain
belting down on a thick covering of snow, it was really quite
incongruous!

its a lovely word

m

"flybywire" wrote in message
...
Word of the Day Archive
Saturday March 5, 2005
Today's Word | Yesterday's Word | Previous Words | Subscribe for Free |
Help

incongruous \in-KONG-groo-us\, adjective:
1. Lacking in harmony, compatibility, or appropriateness.
2. Inconsistent with reason, logic, or common sense.

I have since often observed, how incongruous and irrational the common
Temper of Mankind is.
-- Daniel Defoe, Robinson Crusoe

She made nightdresses and petticoats in the old-fashioned mode and sold
them to a shop in the market town -- one of those exclusive little shops
with a single garment and something imaginatively incongruous -- a
monkey's skull or an old boot -- arranged in the window.
-- Alice Thomas Ellis, Fairy Tale

They made an incongruous pair as they walked on: one was slight and
dapper, some thirty-five years in age, with long, clipped moustaches, and
dressed in the height of modern elegance, complete with pearl buttons and
gold watch chain. The other, ambling a few paces behind, was a towering
fellow with grizzled mutton-chop whiskers, whose ill-fitting frock coat
barely contained a barrel chest.
-- Ben Macintyre, The Napoleon of Crime

Incongruous comes from Latin incongruous, from in-, "not" + congruus,
"agreeing, fit, suitable," from congruere, "to run together, to come
together, to meet."

Dictionary.com Entry and Pronunciation for incongruous

wrote in message
oups.com...
On Feb 2, 8:02 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
Nicely summarised. Heard all that somewhere before though :-)
Having flicked through the group this morning I see what you mean. I
hadn't read your post when I posted though, I promise! :P

Bit of a change from what you were saying a few days ago grin
I tend to be conservative in the main with the run downs, that way
disappointment regarding potentially exciting stuff is kept to a
minimum. Indeed, for a while the models seemed to back away from the
cold even reaching here, after some fantastic output before then.

One point: the charts this morning are slowing things down a tad.
I've noticed before that the models always seem to be keen to break
down a cold spell earlier than is the case. So a breakdown for
Thursday may arrive late Friday, that sort of thing. Whether it's
because they can't handle the colder, denser airmass properly I
couldn't say...

always best to stick with
climatology (i.e. Midlands northwards) as that will work at least 50% of
the
time.
In this case I was thinking more of the epic battles in the 80s, or
even the "breakdown" two years ago - plenty of snow in my part of the
world, but something that seems really hard to nail properly. Counting
against that this time is the fact there's no really cold air forecast
to the east, but I'm still hopeful of a few flakes if nothing else.

Incidentally I've commented on another forum about how a warm front
snowy breakdown invariably ends with the snow fizzling into drizzle
here, followed by a thaw. I've only once in my life seen heavy rain
belting down on a thick covering of snow, it was really quite
incongruous!