Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Wedneday.
Issued 0527z, 10th February 2007.

The latter half of next week looks like being mild, wet and windy across the
UK.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A deep low lies to the west with a trough over England and Wales introducing
much milder air from the south. For northern England, Scotland and Northern
Ireland winds are ESE'lies. Tomorrow sees a mixture of southerlies and
SW'lies as the low to the west remains in situ. Further southerlies and
SE'lies affect the UK on Monday as the low stays put west of the UK. By
Tuesday the low moves eastwards, allowing NW'lies and WNW'lies to affect the
UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rngp1201.gif
The jetstream chart show something different to the past few days, with a
marked ridge over the UK and a deep trough to the west. At the 500hPa level
there's an intense upper low to the west. ECM also shows an upper low to the
west but nowhere as deep as with GFS. NGP has a deep low further west, while
GEM is similar in tha the deep low is around 40W.
At the surface GFS shows strong to gale force SSW'lies and SW'lies over the
UK, with a deep low to the west. ECM has a secondary low over East Anglia,
leaving Scotland and Northern Ireland under light winds and with westerlies
elsewhere. NGP has a weak ridge over the UK and a trough to the west,
leading to a mixture of SW'lies and southerlies. GEM has a low to the NW and
WSW'lies for all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a zonal flow setting in, with the upper low to the west
progressing swiftly eastwards. Day 6 sees complex low pressure over Scotland
and Northern Ireland, with SW'lies elsewhere. By day 7 westerlies cover the
UK with low pressure to the north.
GFS shows something different, with the upper low heading northwards as
heights rise over Scandinavia. On day 6 strong SW'lies cover the UK with a
deep low to the NW. Day 7 sees westerlies as a trough fills over the British
ISles.

Looking further afield
ECM shows NW'lies for all on day 8 as a weak ridge moves in from the west.
The ridge moves eastwards on day 9, allowing southerlies to affect western
areas. By day 10 SW'lies and WSW'lies cover the UK due to a trough to the
north.
GFS brings high pressure over England and Wales on day 8 with SW'lies
elsewhere. The high builds to the east on day 9, bringing SSW'lies across
most areas. By day 10 a ridge persists over England and Wales with
southerlies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles continue to show a mobile "sine wave" pattern for southern
areas and a flatter picture "up north". Temperatures on the whole are above
average.