Interesting charts for 10 days onwards.
A seemingly dead Atlantic, Azores low anyone?

Worth keeping an eye on of course, and it probably won't
happen but maybe, just *maybe* this winter has a sting in
it's tail?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

In article ,
Col writes:
Interesting charts for 10 days onwards.
A seemingly dead Atlantic, Azores low anyone?

Worth keeping an eye on of course, and it probably won't
happen but maybe, just *maybe* this winter has a sting in
it's tail?

Over the last couple of weeks or so the models have kept on wanting to
put in an easterly at a week or so's range. Unfortunately the weather
has up till now steadfastly refused to co-operate.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

I recon that the next run of GFS will have reverted back to the norm.
It appears that the GFS model is infected with the "DREAM virus" which
doesn't clear until April 2005 :-)

Keith (Southend)

***********************
Weather Home & Abroad
http://www.southendweather.net

On Sat, 12 Feb 2005 21:42:46 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
Col writes:
Interesting charts for 10 days onwards.
A seemingly dead Atlantic, Azores low anyone?

Worth keeping an eye on of course, and it probably won't
happen but maybe, just *maybe* this winter has a sting in
it's tail?

Over the last couple of weeks or so the models have kept on wanting to
put in an easterly at a week or so's range. Unfortunately the weather
has up till now steadfastly refused to co-operate.

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Col writes:
Interesting charts for 10 days onwards.
A seemingly dead Atlantic, Azores low anyone?

Worth keeping an eye on of course, and it probably won't
happen but maybe, just *maybe* this winter has a sting in
it's tail?

Over the last couple of weeks or so the models have kept on wanting to
put in an easterly at a week or so's range. Unfortunately the weather
has up till now steadfastly refused to co-operate.
--

It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often bring
easterlies.

Will.
--

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
I recon that the next run of GFS will have reverted back to the norm.
It appears that the GFS model is infected with the "DREAM virus" which
doesn't clear until April 2005 :-)

Keith (Southend)

Very good.

"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often
bring
easterlies.
It's tantalising as the 0z GFS continues the cold theme. To my untrained eye
it all hinges on developments around T+144, which is at the limits of
reliable forecasting IMO....

IF low pressure does move SE'wards over Scandinavia then the GFS outcome
looks quite plausible, but until the other runs start backing it up I'm
going to make a determined effort not to be suckered into believing it.

After all, the recent performance has been dire. I'm sure we all remember
the last time this setup was shown at T+168 and nothing came of it. Equally
the GFS ensembles less than a week ago had this weekend's colder interlude
as a one-day-wonder, but as time's gone by the ensembles now show -5C 850
air lingering for four days over London.

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often
bring
easterlies.
It's tantalising as the 0z GFS continues the cold theme. To my untrained
eye it all hinges on developments around T+144, which is at the limits of
reliable forecasting IMO....

IF low pressure does move SE'wards over Scandinavia then the GFS outcome
looks quite plausible, but until the other runs start backing it up I'm
going to make a determined effort not to be suckered into believing it.

After all, the recent performance has been dire. I'm sure we all remember
the last time this setup was shown at T+168 and nothing came of it.
Equally the GFS ensembles less than a week ago had this weekend's colder
interlude as a one-day-wonder, but as time's gone by the ensembles now
show -5C 850 air lingering for four days over London.
There is perhaps one thing in the favour of the GFS runs namely the fact
that this easterly type of setup is most prevalent in late winter and spring
as Will Hand has pointed out in another thread. I will be quite surprised if
it materialises for the reasons you state.

I wasn't just the GFS that showed the current colder interlude as a one day
wonder though as quite a few of the other models were very similar (e.g
MetO).

Alan

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message ...
It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can often
bring
easterlies.
It's tantalising as the 0z GFS continues the cold theme. To my untrained eye
it all hinges on developments around T+144, which is at the limits of
reliable forecasting IMO....

IF low pressure does move SE'wards over Scandinavia then the GFS outcome
looks quite plausible, but until the other runs start backing it up I'm
going to make a determined effort not to be suckered into believing it.

After all, the recent performance has been dire. I'm sure we all remember
the last time this setup was shown at T+168 and nothing came of it. Equally
the GFS ensembles less than a week ago had this weekend's colder interlude
as a one-day-wonder, but as time's gone by the ensembles now show -5C 850
air lingering for four days over London.


Sensible stuff Darren, it all hinges on the behaviour of the upstream jet coming
out of the States later this week, a strong southerly jet west of Greenland
would amplify a northern high and we would then get our easterly after that. The
chances have to be higher this time I would say due to climatological support.


Will.
--

" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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It's the right time of year for it. Late winter/early Spring can
often bring
easterlies.

You mean like the TWO CONSECUTIVE EASTERLIES that you forecast in late
January?:-p :-o :-(

Where are my easterlies, William?

Where are my dreams!!!:-o :-( :-( :-( :-(

D.