"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--



I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!

"Johndoe" wrote in message
ng.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--



I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!



Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.
--

Will Hand wrote:
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold air
coming into UK next week from the east.
Dynamics are still in place. Some model runs backing up these ideas e.g 12Z GFS
at T+120 range (which is getting closer). It will be different than the last
snow event, this time there will be a continual cold feed of air at low-level
from the continent, not a home-grown cold pool. If it comes off snow will be
more powdery and it will blow around more. Except in the SW, where it is still
likely to be mainly on hills with "western type" snow i.e. big wet sticky flakes
accumulating rapidly above 200m asl.

OK if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it, but I haven't seen anything yet
today to change my mind. (I'm ignoring model details as NWP has trouble in
forecasting blocks).

Will.
--

I have a huge respect for you Will.

But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating
in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me

Cheers
Chris

"Chris Smith" wrote in message
...

But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating
in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me

Cheers
Chris

Cold and grey with the odd snow grain any good, Chris ?!

Jon.

In article om,
Johndoe writes:
I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink
into the subtropics and die!

Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be
before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens
exceeds that in London!
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

But I hope you are wrong. I'm travelling a lot next week - culminating
in a 200km bike ride on Saturday. Mild and calm would be better for me

Cheers
Chris

So you'd turn down a very rare event for a bike ride?

oooook

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Johndoe" wrote in message
ng.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very
cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5
;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--



I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in
these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little
resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!



Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be
ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a
tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further
east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia
with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72.
GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold
based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.
--



Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is
far more awake this time!

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be
ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a
tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further
east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia
with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72.
GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold
based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.

12Z EC ensemble data showed a good split at T+168 and if anything the bias
was towards the colder solutions, say 60/40. GFS operational run now showing
good inter-run consistency in terms of the broadscale pattern.
Things could get interesting if we end up with the slow moving frontal zone
in our part of the world as the GFS is indicating.

Jon.

Going by the trend in recent years, I wonder how many years it will be
before the average number of days per year with snow lying in Athens
exceeds that in London!

----------
Judging by Yannis's posts in the last couple of years I think we might
already be there!
Dave

"Johndoe" wrote in message
g.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Johndoe" wrote in message
ng.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very
cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5
;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
--



I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20
years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in
these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air
wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in
this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little
resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will
sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!



Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be
ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a
tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further
east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia
with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at
T+72. GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance
cold based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.
--



Got to admit Will it has a Jan 11 1987 look to it, except the Atlantic is
far more awake this time!

also a small matter of 10-15dam diference TT