"Johndoe" wrote in message
ng.com...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Despite reservations from others, I'm still 60% confident of very cold
air
coming into UK next week from the east.

Err, forget what I said earlier, I'll match your 60 and raise you 5 ;-)

Jon.

PS have a look at EC :-)


He he full blown retrogression. Awesome.

I'll raise you 5 :-)

Will.
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I'll have some of that, I'll raise you 10. My reasoning is this. 20 years
ago this current synoptic would have delivered for the UK, however in these
globally warmed times (be it man made or not) the warm SST's around our
shores will push this monster Artic HP SE. Again we will find the Greek
peninsula to be the recipient. 20 years ago the advancing cold air wouild
have met a warm Meditarenean, thus encouraging rapid cyclogenesis in this
area, this in turn would anchor the Artic monster. Instead this time the
advancing cold air on the Monsters Eastern flank will meet little resistance
further East over the Turkish plains and inevitably the monster will sink
into the subtropics and die!

We shall see, but the last 10 years suggest my crude analysis to be the
sensible outcome!



Interesting theory and some older runs did just that and it cannot be ruled out.
Difference with latest runs is that the high develops a bit faster and a tad
further north. Latest 12Z JMA keeps it mild by keeping the high further east as
per UKMO. Latest 12Z GEM is pornographic, dragging air in from Siberia with a
1050 high over Scandinavia :-) NOGAPS follows GEM. GME looks cold at T+72. GFS
is cold.

So I make it 2 runs for mild and 4.5 runs for cold, giving 55% chance cold based
on operational run NWP alone.

ATB,

Will.
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