"vince" wrote in message
oups.com...
On Feb 17, 12:22 am, "Richard Dixon" wrote:

going on the latest runs ,it all appears to have gone very very wrong
all so quick
chances now 5%


Yes, the ensemble data from the last day or so indicates that a milder more
progressive pattern for the uk is the more likely outcome, with the deep
cold air remaining just to the E/NE of the UK. However, given its expected
proximity and the uncertainty there has been up until now, I would've
thought that the risk of more wintry weather in the far NE of the UK is
still somewhat higher than 5%, say 30-40%.

Also interesting to note that while the GFS/EC have waxed and waned the MetO
GM has remained fairly consistent with the more progressive solution for the
UK.

Whatever happens much of central/eastern parts of Europe are about to become
properly cold which, IIRC, is something we haven't really seen so far this
winter.

Jon.