"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...

Jon,
Someone in the MetO still thinks there is a possibility to include on the
Day 6 to 15:
"However it may turn colder later in the week, with widespread frost and
perhaps some snow in northern and northeastern Britain, though this
remains
in the balance"
although which week this refers to as the date period starts next Friday
the
23rd I'm not sure.

Phil, yes, the risk is still very much in the minds of those in Ops (at
least it was yesterday !) and given the uncertainty we've seen up till now
it's still worth highlighting in any medium range forecast.

Now that the charts are within FAX range I feel it is less likely! Mind a
mighty battle over Denmark coming up next weekend
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/brack4a.gif
Although I do agree generally that the models have difficulty handling the
change to colder conditions and then usually over speed the change back to
milder weather...

Certainly has been interesting to watch how this one is evolving and how the
operational models and ensembles have handled it. A particularly tricky one
at times for medium range, not least as there's so much data these days to
plough through.

Jon.



Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36
hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale -
mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I note that
on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the
Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this means I'm not
sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be in like a
flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the
cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-)

Will (Foggy Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl).
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