In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Hi Jon, although my confidence has plummeted to 25% given outputs over last 36
hours, the very cold air is not going to be far away, and on a global scale -
mighty close. The ingredients for a very cold spell are still there, I
note that
on the latest runs the cold air is less keen to spread south towards the
Balkans, and keener to spread west to north of Britain. What this
means I'm not
sure? A short let-up in the Atlantic vigour and that cold air will be
in like a
flash. Mind you if it is delayed then a cold Spring is more definitely on the
cards, which will not be good for lovers of short skirts :-)

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
John Hall writes:

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!

Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max
temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the
cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and
Northern Germany.

Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost,
I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south
this Winter!

--
Dave

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 18 Feb 2007 19:04:43 +0000, John Hall
wrote:

In article ,
John Hall writes:

I see that the 12:00 GFS ensemble has three members which bring the very
cold air into London in around a week's time, albeit only briefly in
each case. (Where by "very cold" I mean 850mb temperatures of -9C or
less. Another member bottoms out at about -5C.) Surprisingly, the
picture for Wick isn't that different.

Belay that. I don't know what I was looking at, but the chart has gone
now!

Yes indeed! I see that by Sunday, the GFS is siggesting a day max
temperature of 13 deg C over Southern and Central England although the
cold air (0 deg C max) isn't too far away... over Denmark and
Northern Germany.

Knowing how variable the GFS is at this range, all is not yet lost,
I'd say. But I won't be placing a bet on any more snow in the south
this Winter!

--
Dave

----
I think it was Will who said of the last knife edge situation it's best to
revert to climatology. This taught me that in the last 20 years the cold
pool always slips S.E to Greece!
Dave, distinctly unsurprised.