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This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold in Devon next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the
spirit of freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy
and wish to share freely with others.

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Summary valid for Saturday 24/02/07 to Saturday 03/03/07
TOI (time of issue) Friday 23/02/07 2100 UK local time

This forecast is for all areas in Devon south of the A30 as far west as the
Tamar and as far east as the Exe.

Headline summary:

High confidence that the week ahead will be changeable and mild with further
spells of heavy rain and a bit of sunshine.

Synoptic summary:

Well the promised snow (moderate confidence) and cold weather did not
materialize. It did get as far as Denmark and Shetland but then ground to a halt
as the Atlantic once again re-asserted its influence. Indeed all this coming
week our weather will be dominated by Atlantic depressions bringing yet more
unwanted rain to already saturated ground.

Detailed forecast:

Saturday looks like being mild and showery with moderate to fresh west or
southwest winds. Some sunny intervals. Temperatures 9-12C. More general rain on
Saturday evening and overnight.

On Sunday winds will swing into the northwest and stay fresh to strong. However,
it will be much drier and brighter than Saturday with scattered showers and
sunny spells, especially along the Exe estuary. A bit cooler but still mild with
temperatures 8-11C.

Monday looks like being a super day. Mainly dry with excellent visibility and
sunny spells. Winds turning light to moderate westerly. Winds backing to
southwest in the evening and freshening with rain overnight into Tuesday.
Temperatures 8-11C.

Tuesday looks like being wet with strong westerly to southwesterly winds
bringing spells of rain and drizzle and widespread hill fog over the moors.
Becoming very mild with temperatures 11-14C for a time with double figures even
at altitude. Perhaps becoming drier in the evening and less mild.

After a brief respite, yet more wind and rain spreads in from the west on
Wednesday. However, turning showery with a few sunny intervals during the day.
Turning colder with temperatures 8-11C.

Confidence decreases after Wednesday but it is expected to remain changeable
with the possibility of a major storm running east across England on Thursday
and Friday raising the threat of severe gales and heavy rain. Staying mild with
temperatures 9-12C.

Probably turning brighter and showery and less windy next weekend. Turning
colder as winds swing into the northwest with temperatures 7-10C. No sign yet of
any cold or even dry weather.

Will Hand

Chief Forecaster

Haytor meteorological office

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DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
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. No sign yet of
any cold or even dry weather.

Will Hand

Will I was only Joking on February 10th when I said that's it for snow
then until April

Very mild week just gone with mean temp now up to 4.7c (warmest since
2002) and giving us the warmest winter on record.

Lots more mild and wet weather to come up to the 28th, I think the
Winter mean will end up well past the 1989 record!

Graham

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Well the promised snow (moderate confidence) and cold weather did not
materialize. It did get as far as Denmark and Shetland but then ground to
a halt
as the Atlantic once again re-asserted its influence.

Interesting to note that the MetO Global Model offered fairly consistent
guidance in the leadup to this week, Will. While other operational models
tended to flip from one solution to another (a bit like our probabilities
;-) the GM appeared to maintain the mild unsettled solution for the UK
throughout.

The GM still just about holding on to 2nd place here
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ST.../aczhist6.html

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Well the promised snow (moderate confidence) and cold weather did not
materialize. It did get as far as Denmark and Shetland but then ground to
a halt
as the Atlantic once again re-asserted its influence.

Interesting to note that the MetO Global Model offered fairly consistent
guidance in the leadup to this week, Will. While other operational models
tended to flip from one solution to another (a bit like our probabilities
;-) the GM appeared to maintain the mild unsettled solution for the UK
throughout.


Yes cheers Jon. That pleases me immensely. The Met Office now have some cracking
models!

The GM still just about holding on to 2nd place here
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ST.../aczhist6.html

NWP has come a long way in my lifetime, I remember the 10-level Rectangle in the
1970s which tried to predict UK rainfall up to 24 hours ahead, it was good in
its day, but the errors would have given Lawrence a field day on here!

Will.
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