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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Saturday.
Issued 05437, 20th March 2007. The weekend will see dry weather for most, with high pressure to the NE influencing the UK. Temperatures will be near average and winds will probably be from the east or southeast for most. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif Strong northerlies and NNW'lies cover the UK, with a ridge to the west. The ridge moves over Ireland and Scotland tomorrow, leading to further northerlies elsewhere. By Thursday a mixture of westerlies and NW'lies covers the UK, with a new ridge building to the west. Friday sees the ridge move NE'wards, allowing NNE'lies to cover England and Wales. Elsewhere winds are light due to the ridge. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows the UK under a ridge, with a relatively weak jet heading NE'wards over Iceland. At the 500hPa level there's a large upper high over Scandinavia and a trough across central and southern Europe. ECM is similar, although the trough over southern Europe is instead a cut-off low. MetO has an upper high to the NE and a cut-off low over Biscay, with a trough over SE Europe. NGP has a ridge over Biscay instead and a weaker high to the NE, while GEM has a stronger high to the NE and shows the UK under an upper col. At the surface GFS shows a mixture of southerlies and ENE'lies, with a large high to the NE. ECM is broadly similar, albeit with stronger NE'lies over England and Wales due to a tighter gradient. MetO has light easterlies and SE'lies, again with a high over Scandinavia, while NGP has a ridge and light winds for all. GEM places the high further to the NE, leading to variable winds over England and Wales with southerlies elsewhere. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows easterlies for most on days 6 and 7 as high pressure persists to the NE. GFS brings the Scandinavian High slowly westwards, leading to ENE'lies for most and light winds over Scotland. Looking further afield ECM shows a trough bringing SW'lies to Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 8, while England and Wales remain under easterlies. The trough struggles to move eastwards on day 9, but manages to bring SW'lies across much of the UK. By day 10 the trough becomes a low over Wales, with light winds across the UK. GFS shows SE'lies for most from days 8 to 10 as the Scandinavian High slowly moves away to the east and low pressure moves in from the SW. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show temperatures around average by the weekend, with largely dry conditions. |
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