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Old March 21st 07, 05:45 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (21/03/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Sunday.
Issued 0543, 21st March 2007.

The outlook for the start of next week is dry and settled for most, with
temperatures not far from average overall. High pressure over Scandinavia
looks like influencing us for a few days, before pressure builds again to
the west.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A ridge is moving in from the west, bringing SW'lies to western areas of
Scotland and to Northern Ireland. Elsewhere winds are gusty northerlies, but
they'll ease during the day. By tomorrow milder westerlies cover the UK,
followed by NE'lies for England and Wales on Friday as pressure builds
NE'wards. By Saturday there's a fully-fledged Scandinavian High to the NE,
with a mixture of southerlies and easterlies for the UK.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart continues to show the UK under a ridge, with the jet
heading NNE'wards over Iceland. At the 500hPa level there's an upper high
over Scandinavia and a low over Biscay. ECM has a stronger high and an upper
low further to the SE, while MetO shows a similar pattern. NGP has more of a
trough over southern Europe and less of a high to the NE, while the Canadian
run shows a strong high to the NE and a trough over the UK.
At the surface GFS shows a ridge from the Scandinavian High affecting the
UK, with easterlies for England and Wales and southerlies elsewhere. ECM
shows a ridge over Scotland and ENE'lies elsewhere, while MetO shows
easterlies and southerlies as per GFS. NGP is similar again and GEM keeps
the ridging further north, with ENE'lies for all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a mixture of easterlies and southerlies covering the UK on days 6
and 7, with the Scandinavian High slowly declining in situ.
GFS also shows the Scandinavian High declining, with SE'lies for all on day
6 and light winds for all on day 7 as another ridge builds in from the west.

Looking further afield
ECM shows a col and light winds on day 8, followed by more light winds on
day 9 as a very weak trough crosses the UK. By day 10 high pressure lies to
the NW, with NE'lies for all.
GFS shows high pressure influencing the UK on days 8 to 10, with light winds
for England and Wales. Elsewhere there are moderate SW'lies on day 8 and
light winds out to day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a dry week ahead.



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