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Old March 22nd 07, 05:41 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (22/03/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Monday.
Issued 0538, 22nd March 2007.

Next week will start with a Scandinavian High and easterlies or NE'lies for
much of the UK. The high will move slowly eastwards during the week,
allowing less settled conditions to affect many areas in the latter half of
the week.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A weak trough covers the UK, with light westerlies for most. Tomorrow sees a
ridge and light winds over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with northerlies
elsewhere from a low over Germany. By Saturday pressure builds over
Scandinavia, leading to NE'lies for England and Wales with southerlies
elsewhere. There's little change on Sunday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart still shows a large ridge over Europe and the UK, with
the jet passing over Iceland and Svalbard. At the 500hPa level there's an
upper high over Scandinavia and a shallow low over Biscay. MetO is very
similar, while ECM shows the low further to the south. NGP shows a weaker
high to the NE and a low over the UK, while GEM shows both a stronger high
to the NE and a deeper low to the south.
At the surface GFS shows a ridge over the UK, with ENE'lies for England and
Wales and SSE'lies elsewhere. MetO has a col over much of the UK, with light
winds, while ECM brings easterlies for most with high pressure centred over
the Baltic. NGP has a col and GEM, like ECM, has easterlies for all.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows the Scandinavian High declining, with further easterlies on day 6
and SW'lies moving in across Scotland and Northern Ireland on day 7.
GFS brings a col over the UK on day 6, followed by southerlies ahead of a
trough on day 7.

Looking further afield
ECM shows strong SW'lies across the UK on day 8, driven on by a deep low to
the NE. The low moves away to the NE on day 9, leaving NW'lies for the UK
and the NW'lies continue on day 10.
GFS has a trough over the UK on day 8 with WNW'lies for most. Day 9 sees
westerlies for all, followed by SW'lies on day 10 as pressure builds to the
south.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles continue to show a relatively dry outlook.



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