I think the thing to remember is that the 1/8 chance compares to what is
supposed to be 1/150 to 1/200 chance. So there is a higher chance than
normal but still a higher chance that it wont happen.

Stan

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
In message , Col
writes

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
. ..


My reading of the press release was and is is that the summer is
expected to be typical of recent years, in terms of temperature and
rainfall. Unfortunately, the way it is worded will indeed lead much of
the press to interpret it as you suggest in your final sentence. Such
loosely worded statemements should have no place on the Met Office's
website or in any Met Office publication.

But it also means that there will be a 7 in 8 chance that ther're
*won't* be temperatures as experienced in 2003 and 2006.
Really, I don't know what they are supposed to do if they
are to relaease long-term forecasts, they are always gonig
to turn out rather vague and 'loosely worded'
Any precise detail is impossible, so the probabilistic route is
probably(!) the best one to take.

Perhaps it would be more appropriate to emphasis the conditions that have
a 7 in 8 chance of occurring rather than those that have only a 1 in 8
chance.

Norman'
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 11 Apr 2007, Philip Eden
wrote :

ObUSW:
12 of the last 13 summers have had a mean temperature
above the 1971-2000 average (as measured by the CET, and,
yes, I know the press release uses a different series, but it's
unlikely to be much different). The last one below was in 1998
and then by only a fraction of a degree. I really don't see much
value, during a warming régime, of using an average period
whose mid-point was 22 years ago to make a point in a
press release. It's as if they want the media to spin it into
"Britain set to swelter through another long hot summer".

Exactly.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Felly sgrifennodd Jon O'Rourke :
MetO forecast issued this morning
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20070411.html

Hmm, only a 1 in 8 chance of temperatures being similar to 03 and 06?
One might conclude (though figures aren't all there to support this) that
this suggests a _cooler_ summer than the 01-06 average. Such a
conclusion would surely be more logical than that of the papers, who,
anticipating this release last week, were predicting another "scorcher".

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/ uk

Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Apr 12, 12:08 am, "Tom Allen" wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message

...

snippit 3) A high probability of exceeding the average ... how high is high?

'At least 70 %' it says.

5) Where is the forecast for? The UK or England?
For the mean temps - 'Western Europe including the UK' it says
For an exceptionally hot summer - 'across the UK' it says.


I clicked on the link provided by the OP again just now, just in case I had gone
mad. I had not.

There is no mention in the release of the forecast being for the UK or anywhere
else.
There is no mention in the release of 70% in any context.

I quote:
"Met Office forecast for Summer 2007
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals that this
summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal
forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed
the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in
2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no
indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.
The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on 4 January
2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is
likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the
current record set in 1998.
Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which has
implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively with the
Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can protect ourselves in
hot weather.
Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme aimed at
alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable groups. During the
2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly attributed excess deaths in
the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the
Met Office is clear about what the benefits of the service are, saying: “The
very old and the very young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat,
particularly when very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very
hot days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely to find
their symptoms heightened.”
The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May 2007."


And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

My points were meant to be taken together, particularly items 4, 5, and 6. If
that was not obvious, then I am in error for not making it so (corrected here).


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

"Gianna" wrote in message
...
Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Apr 12, 12:08 am, "Tom Allen" wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message

...

snippit 3) A high probability of exceeding the average ... how
high is high?

'At least 70 %' it says.

5) Where is the forecast for? The UK or England?
For the mean temps - 'Western Europe including the UK' it says
For an exceptionally hot summer - 'across the UK' it says.


I clicked on the link provided by the OP again just now, just in case
I had gone mad. I had not.

There is no mention in the release of the forecast being for the UK or
anywhere else.
There is no mention in the release of 70% in any context.

I quote:
"Met Office forecast for Summer 2007
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals
that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007,
seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer
temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those
experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no
indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly
wet summer.
The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on
4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia,
stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going
back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.
Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which
has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively
with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can
protect ourselves in hot weather.
Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme
aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable
groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly
attributed excess deaths in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish
Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what
the benefits of the service are, saying: “The very old and the very
young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when
very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot
days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely
to find their symptoms heightened.”
The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May
2007."


And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

My points were meant to be taken together, particularly items 4, 5,
and 6. If that was not obvious, then I am in error for not making it
so (corrected here).


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

You may be confusing the press release with the forecast.
The former is distingushable by its loose use of language and such
laxity as allowing someone to choose the name they wish to be known by.
There is a link to the forecast in the press release.
Tom

Tom Allen wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message
...
Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Apr 12, 12:08 am, "Tom Allen" wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message

...

snippit 3) A high probability of exceeding the average ... how
high is high?

'At least 70 %' it says.

5) Where is the forecast for? The UK or England?
For the mean temps - 'Western Europe including the UK' it says
For an exceptionally hot summer - 'across the UK' it says.

I clicked on the link provided by the OP again just now, just in case
I had gone mad. I had not.

There is no mention in the release of the forecast being for the UK or
anywhere else.
There is no mention in the release of 70% in any context.

I quote:
"Met Office forecast for Summer 2007
The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals
that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.
Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007,
seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer
temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.
They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those
experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.
The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no
indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly
wet summer.
The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on
4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia,
stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going
back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.
Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which
has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively
with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can
protect ourselves in hot weather.
Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme
aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable
groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly
attributed excess deaths in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish
Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what
the benefits of the service are, saying: “The very old and the very
young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when
very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot
days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely
to find their symptoms heightened.”
The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May
2007."


And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

My points were meant to be taken together, particularly items 4, 5,
and 6. If that was not obvious, then I am in error for not making it
so (corrected here).


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

You may be confusing the press release with the forecast.
The former is distingushable by its loose use of language and such
laxity as allowing someone to choose the name they wish to be known by.
There is a link to the forecast in the press release.
Tom



Not me (-:
The OP was commenting on the press release, and provided a reference to it by
giving the URL.
I was replying to the topic of the thread, i.e. the press release, and it
remains, in my opinion, tosh.


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *

"Gianna" wrote in message
...
And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

There is a link on that page towards the bottom right hand corner
entitled 'full summer 2007 forecast'.
I don't see how you could have missed it.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...

Perhaps it would be more appropriate to emphasis the conditions that have
a 7 in 8 chance of occurring rather than those that have only a 1 in 8
chance.


Yeah but that's rather boring isn't it

I see one of the papers has latched onto the non-commital rainfal
forecast and started going on about drought and standpipes
simply because prediced rainfall amounts are 'uncertain'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 12 Apr, 09:11, (Adrian D. Shaw) wrote:
Felly sgrifennodd *Jon O'Rourke :

MetO forecast issued this morning
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...r20070411.html

Hmm, only a 1 in 8 chance of temperatures being similar to 03 and 06?
One might conclude (though figures aren't all there to support this) that
this suggests a _cooler_ summer than the 01-06 average. Such a
conclusion would surely be more logical than that of the papers, who,
anticipating this release last week, were predicting another "scorcher".

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, * * * * * * * * * aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ac.http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais/weather/* * * * * * * * * * * * * *uk

Just looking at the Met Office Global seasonal category maps for Jun/
Jul/Aug, the southeast of England, along with most of France and the
Low Countries, is more likely to have an average summer with respect
to temperature.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...erce_cat2.html

Dick Lovett

Col wrote:
"Gianna" wrote in message
...
And for Col - I did read it properly - see above - did you? (-:

There is a link on that page towards the bottom right hand corner
entitled 'full summer 2007 forecast'.
I don't see how you could have missed it.


Why do you think I missed something simply because I questioned the usefulness
of the press release (actually, I responded to 'tish' and wrote 'tosh')?
I know I seldom stay on topic for long but this is the first time anyone has
complained because I did!

Why is it so difficult to understand that I replied to pe's point 'tish' which
refers to the press release, quoting the link provided by the OP?
The thread referred to one web page ... the press release. I did not involve
any secondary pages.

When asked why I thought the press release was tosh, I explained why.
The contents of the full forecast have no effect on my opinion of the press
release. It is tosh.

I can review the full forecast if you insist, but that rather ruins the word play.


--
Gianna

http://www.buchan-meteo.org.uk
* * * * * * *