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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0537z, 13th April 2007. The outlook remains largely dry for all for at least the next week, with high pressure very much in control. Northern areas will become cooler though, with perhaps more in the way of cloud. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif A ridge covers the UK, leading to light winds for all. There's little change tomorrow or on Sunday, with a ridge persisting over the UK. Monday sees a col. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a trough to the north, with the jet passing over Scotland. A high lies to the south on the 500hPa chart, with a stronger high to the SW on the MetO chart. ECM has a similarly strong high over the English Channel, while GEM just shows a ridge from the SW instead. NGP is completely different with an upper trough over the North Sea. At the surface GFS brings a ridge over England, Wales and Northern Ireland with westerlies for Scotland. MetO has a high over Ireland with a mixture of WNW'lies and westerlies for most; the exception is southern England which lies under NE'lies. ECM has a high centred a couple of hundred miles further north, leading to light winds for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere, winds are NE'lies. GEM brings light winds for all with a high centred atop the UK. NGP has NW'lies for all with high pressure to the west. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows high pressure declining over the UK on day 6, with westerlies for Scotland and light winds elsewhere. On day 7 the high continues to decline with further light winds as a result. GFS brings high pressure over Ireland with NW'lies for most on days 6 and 7. Looking further afield ECM brings NE'lies from a high to the NW on day 8, followed by easterlies as the high crosses Scotland on day 9. By day 10 the high builds over the North Sea, introducing a mix of southerlies and easterlies to the UK. GFS shows southerlies as high pressure moves eastwards on day 8, with further southerlies on day 9. By day 10 a secondary low crosses the UK, with southerlies in advance and westerlies following behind. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show a cooler period on the way for northern areas, albeit with a large degree of scatter beyond day 6. Further south there's a gradual downward trend in termperatures aloft, but the mean stays above average all the way to day 16. |
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