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Old April 13th 07, 06:40 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (13/04/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on Tuesday.
Issued 0537z, 13th April 2007.

The outlook remains largely dry for all for at least the next week, with
high pressure very much in control. Northern areas will become cooler
though, with perhaps more in the way of cloud.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
A ridge covers the UK, leading to light winds for all. There's little change
tomorrow or on Sunday, with a ridge persisting over the UK. Monday sees a
col.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a trough to the north, with the jet passing over
Scotland. A high lies to the south on the 500hPa chart, with a stronger high
to the SW on the MetO chart. ECM has a similarly strong high over the
English Channel, while GEM just shows a ridge from the SW instead. NGP is
completely different with an upper trough over the North Sea.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge over England, Wales and Northern Ireland
with westerlies for Scotland. MetO has a high over Ireland with a mixture of
WNW'lies and westerlies for most; the exception is southern England which
lies under NE'lies. ECM has a high centred a couple of hundred miles further
north, leading to light winds for Northern Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere,
winds are NE'lies. GEM brings light winds for all with a high centred atop
the UK. NGP has NW'lies for all with high pressure to the west.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure declining over the UK on day 6, with westerlies for
Scotland and light winds elsewhere. On day 7 the high continues to decline
with further light winds as a result.
GFS brings high pressure over Ireland with NW'lies for most on days 6 and 7.

Looking further afield
ECM brings NE'lies from a high to the NW on day 8, followed by easterlies as
the high crosses Scotland on day 9. By day 10 the high builds over the North
Sea, introducing a mix of southerlies and easterlies to the UK.
GFS shows southerlies as high pressure moves eastwards on day 8, with
further southerlies on day 9. By day 10 a secondary low crosses the UK, with
southerlies in advance and westerlies following behind.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show a cooler period on the way for northern areas, albeit
with a large degree of scatter beyond day 6. Further south there's a gradual
downward trend in termperatures aloft, but the mean stays above average all
the way to day 16.



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