and I don't mean temperatures!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but don't hurricanes often head our way
but dissipate due to cooler seas before reaching our shores. For example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5366886.stm

So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?

If so are we likely to see such a rise in sea temperature due to GW in
the not to distant future?


Graham

Graham Jones wrote:
and I don't mean temperatures!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but don't hurricanes often head our way
but dissipate due to cooler seas before reaching our shores. For example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5366886.stm

So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?

If so are we likely to see such a rise in sea temperature due to GW in
the not to distant future?


Graham

and make land fall in SE England

Sorry that obviously should have been SW England. It's getting late.

Graham Jones wrote:

and I don't mean temperatures!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but don't hurricanes often head our way
but dissipate due to cooler seas before reaching our shores. For example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5366886.stm

So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?


Sea temp need to be 26.5C to a depth of at 50m.

The sea surrounding our shores reaches around 18/19C (on the surface) in
late August - early September.


If so are we likely to see such a rise in sea temperature due to GW in
the not to distant future?


No, not in our lifetimes.


--
Brian Wakem
Email: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/b.wakem/myemail.png

Brian Wakem wrote:
Graham Jones wrote:

and I don't mean temperatures!

Now correct me if I am wrong, but don't hurricanes often head our way
but dissipate due to cooler seas before reaching our shores. For example:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/5366886.stm

So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?


Sea temp need to be 26.5C to a depth of at 50m.

The sea surrounding our shores reaches around 18/19C (on the surface) in
late August - early September.


If so are we likely to see such a rise in sea temperature due to GW in
the not to distant future?


No, not in our lifetimes.



Interesting, thanks Brian.

Not just warm ocean temps as the factor here

Hurricanes are warm core systems, as they undergo extra-tropical
transition, they transfer into cold core systems.

They usually get swept east / north-east with weather fronts leaving
the eastern seaboard of the U.S.. they merge with the front / undergo
extra-tropical transition.

Extra-tropical systems can still have winds that exceed hurricane
force in gusts.

That's all that people care about, when it comes to affects on the
land.. what strength will the wind be, regardless of whether it's
still offically a hurricane or extra-tropical storm, or it could be a
sub-tropical storm (which is between the two)

Bay of Biscay could be our version of the Gulf of Mexico, as it warms.
Hope to see some cracking storms marching north

Bay of Biscay could be our version of the Gulf of Mexico, as it warms.
Hope to see some cracking storms marching north
---------------------
I don't! Having been in the thick of the 1987 storm, high winds are the only
UK weather I've experienced that has scared me.

Dave

I agree.
After 46 years at sea, I can confirm that Force 12+ (hurricane, typhoon,
willy-willy, call it what you will) is not desirable. My worst experience
was 230 knot winds outside Hong Kong in 1963 with 22 ships going down in the
vicinity and we were hanging on by the skin of our teeth. The learning curve
was vertical and I came to understand Conrad's 'I have known the sea for too
long to believe in it's respect for decency'
PeterJ
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
k...


Bay of Biscay could be our version of the Gulf of Mexico, as it warms.
Hope to see some cracking storms marching north
---------------------
I don't! Having been in the thick of the 1987 storm, high winds are the
only UK weather I've experienced that has scared me.

Dave

Brian Wakem wrote in
:

snip
So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?


Sea temp need to be 26.5C to a depth of at 50m.
snip

Didn't Hurricane Epsilon at the end of the 2005 season form (and sustain
itself) in temperatures several degrees colder than that, though? The
Wikipedia article says that it "became a hurricane over cooler waters
averaging 21–24°C".

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

On 15 Apr, 23:21, David Buttery wrote:
Brian Wakem wrote :

snip So what rise in sea temperatures would be needed for the hurricane to
sustain itself and make land fall in SE England as a bona fide
hurricane? Or is sea temperature not the only criterium?

Sea temp need to be 26.5C to a depth of at 50m.

snip

Didn't Hurricane Epsilon at the end of the 2005 season form (and sustain
itself) in temperatures several degrees colder than that, though? The
Wikipedia article says that it "became a hurricane over cooler waters
averaging 21-24°C".

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

The SST has exceeded 20C off SW England on a few occasions in recent
years. It's reached 21C at Sevenstones on a couple of occasions. Rough
conditions soon knock it back to 18-19 though. (Currently approaching
12C)

I'm quite happy with hurricanes on the other side of the Atlantic
generating a nice clean swell in Cornwall where there's a very gentle
north coast offshore SE wind. Dry air so there's no sea fog.

Not that I'm fussy.

Graham
Penzance