It is already clear that this will be the warmest April at Brussels
Uccle since records began there in 1833.

Average temp. so far is 13.0°C - 4 deg. C above the long-term
average of 9.0°C and even just above the long-term May average of
12.7°C.

Average max. temp. so far is 19.1°C - 6 deg. C above the long-term
average of 13.1°C and well above the average May maximum of 17.2°C.

The Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute is forecasting max. temps
of from 26 to 29°C in Brussels for the rest of the month.

If this comes about, the average maximum for April will be pushed up
to around 20°C - SEVEN degrees above normal and similar to the
average maximum for a typical June !

Colin Youngs
Brussels

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 25 Apr 2007, Colin Youngs
wrote :
It is already clear that this will be the warmest April at Brussels
Uccle since records began there in 1833.

Average temp. so far is 13.0°C - 4 deg. C above the long-term
average of 9.0°C and even just above the long-term May average of
12.7°C.

Average max. temp. so far is 19.1°C - 6 deg. C above the long-term
average of 13.1°C and well above the average May maximum of 17.2°C.

The Belgian Royal Meteorological Institute is forecasting max. temps
of from 26 to 29°C in Brussels for the rest of the month.

If this comes about, the average maximum for April will be pushed up
to around 20°C - SEVEN degrees above normal and similar to the
average maximum for a typical June !

Yes, this month has been totally insane!

Where has our *usual* spring weather been going, anyway?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Paul Hyett" wrote :
In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 25 Apr 2007, Colin Youngs wrote:

It is already clear that this will be the warmest April at Brussels
Uccle since records began there in 1833.

snip

If this comes about, the average maximum for April will be pushed up
to around 20°C - SEVEN degrees above normal and similar to the
average maximum for a typical June !

Yes, this month has been totally insane!

Where has our *usual* spring weather been going, anyway?
--
Paul, without diminishing the import of breaking another monthly
record, I wouldn't describe the weather as 'insane'. The long dry
spell and the abundant sunshine are a feature of blocked spring
months which are not at all uncommon. The persistence of warmth
(as distinct from the actual level of warmth) is rarer, but it happens
as well - several times in the Aprils of the 1940s, the 1890s and
the 1860s, for instance. But, sure, the level of warmth is
quite unprecedented.

The synoptics and the general character of the weather, then,
I would suggest, are entirely within the bounds of 'normality'.
It's only the temperature hike (apparent in all months - for
instance last August when an exceptional degree of
northerliness was accompanied by a CET close to the
1971-2000 mean) which isn't normal. It's important to separate
the two.

Philip

On 26 Apr, 11:34, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
Paul, without diminishing the import of breaking another monthly
record, I wouldn't describe the weather as 'insane'. The long dry
spell and the abundant sunshine are a feature of blocked spring
months which are not at all uncommon. The persistence of warmth
(as distinct from the actual level of warmth) is rarer, but it happens
as well - several times in the Aprils of the 1940s, the 1890s and
the 1860s, for instance. But, sure, the level of warmth is
quite unprecedented.

Since europe is so much warmer this month , is there somewhere in the
world where its currently much colder than usual? I'm assuming the
heat energy has been diverted from its normal destination rather than
all this extra energy being retained in the atmosphere over and above
the normal amount which IMO would be rather worrying.

B2003

Boltar wrote:
On 26 Apr, 11:34, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
Paul, without diminishing the import of breaking another monthly
record, I wouldn't describe the weather as 'insane'. The long dry
spell and the abundant sunshine are a feature of blocked spring
months which are not at all uncommon. The persistence of warmth
(as distinct from the actual level of warmth) is rarer, but it happens
as well - several times in the Aprils of the 1940s, the 1890s and
the 1860s, for instance. But, sure, the level of warmth is
quite unprecedented.

Since europe is so much warmer this month , is there somewhere in the
world where its currently much colder than usual? I'm assuming the
heat energy has been diverted from its normal destination rather than
all this extra energy being retained in the atmosphere over and above
the normal amount which IMO would be rather worrying.

B2003


Just had a quick flick though some of my worldwide summaries and as a
rough guide the following areas show more than -1.0°c from the norm. A
very rough guide.

Spain, Crete, Ankara (Turkey) Egypt, Israel, Algeria, Canada, (Georgia,
Louisiana, Texas, California, Oklahoma, New York State- USA), Mongolia,
South Korea, parts of Japan,

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

In uk.sci.weather on Thu, 26 Apr 2007, Philip Eden
wrote :

If this comes about, the average maximum for April will be pushed up
to around 20°C - SEVEN degrees above normal and similar to the
average maximum for a typical June !

Yes, this month has been totally insane!

Where has our *usual* spring weather been going, anyway?
--
Paul, without diminishing the import of breaking another monthly
record, I wouldn't describe the weather as 'insane'.

OK, let's say it's been driving *me* insane, then.

The long dry
spell and the abundant sunshine are a feature of blocked spring
months which are not at all uncommon. The persistence of warmth
(as distinct from the actual level of warmth) is rarer, but it happens
as well - several times in the Aprils of the 1940s, the 1890s and
the 1860s, for instance. But, sure, the level of warmth is
quite unprecedented.

Makes it hard to argue with GW fans.

The synoptics and the general character of the weather, then,
I would suggest, are entirely within the bounds of 'normality'.
It's only the temperature hike (apparent in all months - for
instance last August when an exceptional degree of
northerliness was accompanied by a CET close to the
1971-2000 mean) which isn't normal.

But there's still no way of proving whether any change is natural or
man-made.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

On 26 Apr, 16:49, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:
Just had a quick flick though some of my worldwide summaries and as a
rough guide the following areas show more than -1.0°c from the norm. A
very rough guide.

Spain, Crete, Ankara (Turkey) Egypt, Israel, Algeria,

So perhaps a kind of swap has happened in the weather over europe and
the med? The north has got warmer , the south colder. Does this happen
much?

B2003

"Boltar" wrote:
On 26 Apr, 16:49, "Keith (Southend)" wrote:
Just had a quick flick though some of my worldwide summaries and as a
rough guide the following areas show more than -1.0°c from the norm. A
very rough guide.

Spain, Crete, Ankara (Turkey) Egypt, Israel, Algeria,

So perhaps a kind of swap has happened in the weather over europe and
the med? The north has got warmer , the south colder. Does this happen
much?

Reply:
(Dunno where the chevrons have gone!)

Yes. It's a consequence of the sort of blocking pattern we've had
for most of the last six weeks.

Put as simply as I can, if a blocking high sits over the
British Isles there is likely to be advection of cold air (at times)
on the eastern flank of the high, and quite often a tongue of
cold air extends right down into the Mediterranean in the form
of a trough in the upper air pattern. Quite often, that trough disrupts,
leaving a "cut off low" there, trapping relatively cold air (and
extensive cloud and rain) for several days in the general area.

From Keith's summary, I think it's clear that, over Europe at
least, the colder-than-average zone is smaller and less intense
than the warmer-than-average zone. Over the whole globe
a similar equation pertains practically every month these days.

Philip

Re this and the blocking thread I am told that at the recent EGU AGU
Mojib Latif ascribed the recent warmth in western Europe to an
increase in the Meridional Overturning Circulation MOC (ie ocean heat
transport in the Atlantic), presumably in this talk-
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU20...07-J-05688.pdf
apparently GCM forecasts have not handled it well. Presumably this
enhances the warm ocean/cold land regime and may enhance the length
and intensity of the spring blocking, as well as increasing the
sensible heat flux (for winter storms).
Another group has proposed that the waning of 'global dimming' (by
aerosols) is taking effect,
regards,
David