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Old April 27th 07, 06:32 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (27/04/07)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on TUesday.
Issued 0529z, 27th April 2007.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for northern areas in the middle of
next week, with a greater risk of rain further south from low pressure
nearby. Winds will be easterly or ENE'ly for most and temperatures are
likely to slowly drop as the week progresses.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif
High pressure covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, leading to NE'lies
elsewhere. Tomorrow easterlies and ENE'lies affect the UK as the high builds
to the north. There's more of the same on Sunday and Monday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart continues to show a blocking upper ridge over the UK. At
the 500hPa level there's a high to the north and a couple of lows to the
south. ECM shows a similar setup but with only one low to the south, while
MetO has two lows to the south and WSW. NGP has a trough over the UK and
ridges to the east and west. GEM, like the majority, has a high to the north
and a low to the south.
At the surface GFS brings moderate ENE'lies over the UK, with lows to the
south and SW. ECM also brings ENE'lies, this time with a low over Biscay.
MetO has a shallower low over France and easterlies for most, while NGP
brings light winds due to a col. GEM shows moderate to strong ENE'lies,
again with low pressure over France.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows a mixture of SE'lies and ENE'lies for the UK on days 6 and 7, with
high pressure to the NE and low pressure to the south.
GFS also shows a mixture of SE'lies and ENE'lies, again with high pressure
to the NE.

Looking further afield
ECM shows further SE'lies and easterlies on day 8, before a ridge builds
over the UK on days 9 and 10.
GFS shows a high over the UK on day 8 and a ridge on day 9, with light winds
for all. By day 10 SW'lies move across Scotland and Northern Ireland as the
ridge sinks SE'wards.

Ensemble analysis
(http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last
night's 18z)
The ensembles show dry weather for northern areas, with a drop in
temperature during the latter half of next week. Further south the outlook
is less settled, with temperatures also cooling by this time next week.




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