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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for 12z on TUesday.
Issued 0529z, 27th April 2007. High pressure will bring dry conditions for northern areas in the middle of next week, with a greater risk of rain further south from low pressure nearby. Winds will be easterly or ENE'ly for most and temperatures are likely to slowly drop as the week progresses. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/avnpanel1.gif High pressure covers Scotland and Northern Ireland, leading to NE'lies elsewhere. Tomorrow easterlies and ENE'lies affect the UK as the high builds to the north. There's more of the same on Sunday and Monday. T+120 synopsis http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rjma1201.gif / http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart continues to show a blocking upper ridge over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a high to the north and a couple of lows to the south. ECM shows a similar setup but with only one low to the south, while MetO has two lows to the south and WSW. NGP has a trough over the UK and ridges to the east and west. GEM, like the majority, has a high to the north and a low to the south. At the surface GFS brings moderate ENE'lies over the UK, with lows to the south and SW. ECM also brings ENE'lies, this time with a low over Biscay. MetO has a shallower low over France and easterlies for most, while NGP brings light winds due to a col. GEM shows moderate to strong ENE'lies, again with low pressure over France. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows a mixture of SE'lies and ENE'lies for the UK on days 6 and 7, with high pressure to the NE and low pressure to the south. GFS also shows a mixture of SE'lies and ENE'lies, again with high pressure to the NE. Looking further afield ECM shows further SE'lies and easterlies on day 8, before a ridge builds over the UK on days 9 and 10. GFS shows a high over the UK on day 8 and a ridge on day 9, with light winds for all. By day 10 SW'lies move across Scotland and Northern Ireland as the ridge sinks SE'wards. Ensemble analysis (http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...ia/ensdia.html - last night's 18z) The ensembles show dry weather for northern areas, with a drop in temperature during the latter half of next week. Further south the outlook is less settled, with temperatures also cooling by this time next week. |
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