Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

Martin.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...007/index.html


--
Martin Rowley
Bracknell

In message , Martin Rowley
m writes
Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

Martin.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...007/index.html

The presenter of a "special report" on BBC TV News last night commenting
on this updated forecast said something along the lines of

"There's a 1 in 8 chance of a summer as hot as last year so we're
in for another really scorching summer"

The 7 chances in 8 that it won't be as hot as last year was completely
ignored. It would probably help if the Met Office forecast was a bit
more explicit, saying that it is unlikely that it will be as hot as 2003
or 2006. The forecast, as it stands, emphasises the unlikely and ignores
the likely.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Martin Rowley
m wrote :

Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

IMO, chaos theory makes any weather prediction much more than a week
ahead, not worth the paper it's written on.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Paul Hyett wrote:

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Martin Rowley
m wrote :

Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

IMO, chaos theory makes any weather prediction much more than a week
ahead, not worth the paper it's written on.

Admittedly, for long-range forecasting based on extending the current
forecast further into the distant future then you're right to worry about
chaos theory. But older methods, such as using sea-temperature anomalies,
are much less likely to be troubled by it.

A recent example of how sea temperatures affect the atmospheric circulation
occurred last year when El Nino kicked in and moved Atlantic hurricanes
away from the US giving them a light year. This year, with La Nina in
place - albeit looking a tad weak - I'd expect to see the hurricanes
following the more usual tracks into the Caribbean and SE USA.


--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

On May 2, 7:13 pm, Paul Hyett wrote:
In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Martin Rowley
m wrote :

Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

IMO, chaos theory makes any weather prediction much more than a week
ahead, not worth the paper it's written on.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Chaos theory only applies to individual synoptic
systems. There are longer-term effects such as sea temperature
anomalies and the persistence or otherwise of snow cover. It must
surely be noticeable that in a dry fine spell when one High moves away
another develops in its place.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Tudor Hughes
wrote :
On May 2, 7:13 pm, Paul Hyett wrote:
In uk.sci.weather on Wed, 2 May 2007, Martin Rowley
m wrote :

Not a great deal of change - the 'indications' of drier-than-average
conditions over southern Britain won't be welcome though after the past
8 weeks.

IMO, chaos theory makes any weather prediction much more than a week
ahead, not worth the paper it's written on.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Chaos theory only applies to individual synoptic
systems. There are longer-term effects such as sea temperature
anomalies

Where's the best place to see them nowadays? I used to use FMNOC, but
that hasn't been updated in 6 months.

and the persistence or otherwise of snow cover.

Chance would be a fine thing...

It must
surely be noticeable that in a dry fine spell when one High moves away
another develops in its place.

Does it make a difference whether it's an old or new High?

How does SST affect blocking patterns, anyway?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)