I know I shouldn't keep moaning about the MetO, but it's so hard to
resist when the forcasts for locations where they no longer get any
data for are such complete rubbish.

Having gone through a phase when the forcasts for every location in
Cornwall was the same, they now seem to vary it slightly but totally
randomly. If they use some more scientific basis, then having compared
the forecasts a day or 2 ahead with what actually happened (as far as
temperature is concerned) I advise going back to the drawing board.

Tomorrow thay are forecasting a moderate NW wind & sunshine. Fair
enough. BUT Mid afternoon temperature forecast are 11C for Penzance
12C for ST Mawgan. Well, the chance of St. Mawgan being warmer than
Penzance during a late May afternoon when there is a moderate NW wind
& prolonged sunshine is about as close to 0 as it is scientifically
possible to get. Do the forecasts take any account whatsoever of
aspect, sea temperature, likely development of sea breezes? because
they certainly fool me.

If the MetO had a decent network of recording stations then the abilty
to be able to compare forecasts with reality might provide them with a
bit of feedback, sadly they are going the other way & it shows. I find
the accuracy of some of the medium range models (up to a week or so)
impressive, but local detail is rubbish, and they shouldn't pretend
otherwise by giving 3 day forecasts for localities they clearly have
no understanding of.

Assuming that the wind & sunshine forecasts are correct, I would
expect St Mawgan to stick close to the SST temperature (13C) & 15-16C
in Penzance.

Extremely Grumpy
Penzance

On the plus side that weak front's just cleared & the suns out.

www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/BR.html

On 25 May, 13:36, Graham Easterling wrote:
I know I shouldn't keep moaning about the MetO, but it's so hard to
resist when the forcasts for locations where they no longer get any
data for are such complete rubbish.

Having gone through a phase when the forcasts for every location in
Cornwall was the same, they now seem to vary it slightly but totally
randomly. If they use some more scientific basis, then having compared
the forecasts a day or 2 ahead with what actually happened (as far as
temperature is concerned) I advise going back to the drawing board.

Tomorrow thay are forecasting a moderate NW wind & sunshine. Fair
enough. BUT Mid afternoon temperature forecast are 11C for Penzance
12C for ST Mawgan. Well, the chance of St. Mawgan being warmer than
Penzance during a late May afternoon when there is a moderate NW wind
& prolonged sunshine is about as close to 0 as it is scientifically
possible to get. Do the forecasts take any account whatsoever of
aspect, sea temperature, likely development of sea breezes? because
they certainly fool me.

If the MetO had a decent network of recording stations then the abilty
to be able to compare forecasts with reality might provide them with a
bit of feedback, sadly they are going the other way & it shows. I find
the accuracy of some of the medium range models (up to a week or so)
impressive, but local detail is rubbish, and they shouldn't pretend
otherwise by giving 3 day forecasts for localities they clearly have
no understanding of.

Assuming that the wind & sunshine forecasts are correct, I would
expect St Mawgan to stick close to the SST temperature (13C) & 15-16C
in Penzance.

Extremely Grumpy
Penzance

On the plus side that weak front's just cleared & the suns out.

www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/BR.html

I suspect all of these location forecasts are taken straight off the
numerical model; so it won't matter whether there are data available
or not.

John

"Graham Easterling" wrote in message
ups.com...
I know I shouldn't keep moaning about the MetO, but it's so hard to
resist when the forcasts for locations where they no longer get any
data for are such complete rubbish.

Graham, could I suggest you send your comments to the enquiries address here
:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...t/contact.html

(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat.../guidance.html)

Jon.

On 27 May, 08:43, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Graham Easterling" wrote in message

ups.com...

I know I shouldn't keep moaning about the MetO, but it's so hard to
resist when the forcasts for locations where they no longer get any
data for are such complete rubbish.

Graham, could I suggest you send your comments to the enquiries address here
:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat...t/contact.html

(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat.../guidance.html)

Jon.

Jon,

Will do.

I did actually contact the MetO on this subject once before. At that
time (a few years back now) the predictions used on CEEFAX 406 were
based on a grid reference a few miles out to sea. Not surprisingly
the forecast max temperature was almost always within a degree of the
SST, useful if you were out fishing small boat. (I believe the
predictions for Guernsey suffered the same problem fo a while).

The response then was it was up to the BBC how they used the data,
they merely supplied it.

Graham
Penzance