Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.
Also, it is certainly going to be cold early next week and I wouldn't
bet against a max below 9°C here. MSF are now making a little less of
it than UKMO with the Low less deep and a different distribution of
rain compared to what one could expect from the Met Office charts.
Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.
There has been little comment here on this potentially very
interesting spell, more people being interested in MSF clocks, which
is a little sad, in both senses of the term.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 26 May 2007 07:21:31 -0700, Tudor Hughes wrote in
oups.com

Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.
Also, it is certainly going to be cold early next week and I wouldn't
bet against a max below 9°C here. MSF are now making a little less of
it than UKMO with the Low less deep and a different distribution of
rain compared to what one could expect from the Met Office charts.
Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.

And those high temperatures looks set to continue for the foreseeable
future.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Currently only about 9C here with very unstable air aloft.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 26/05/2007 15:38:38 GMT

On 26 May 2007 07:21:31 -0700, Tudor Hughes wrote

Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.

... Just tried to work out what sort of rainfall we'd get here
(Bracknell) based on latest output as far as I can see them:

GFS deterministic implies ~15mm by end Monday
GFES (ensemble) ~10 mm average, with a 'high' in one member of ~15 mm
(based on 06Z)
UKMO ~ 20 mm

(all 'eye-balled' off charts, apart from the deterministic, so some
'play' must be allowed for.

The GFS throws the strongest ascent across the west/central Channel into
Normandy so the heaviest point rainfall will probably be in those
regions (and adjacent - i.e. SW England), but the amounts for us I guess
will be governed by where the rain-bands end up, their speed of
translation as the low slips to the south of us etc. Still a lot to go
wrong but the general story looks pretty solid - as you point out, the
temperatures disappointing for many.

(.. and my MSF clock still isn't updating!)

Martin.

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
ups.com...
Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.
Also, it is certainly going to be cold early next week and I wouldn't
bet against a max below 9°C here. MSF are now making a little less of
it than UKMO with the Low less deep and a different distribution of
rain compared to what one could expect from the Met Office charts.
Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.
There has been little comment here on this potentially very
interesting spell, more people being interested in MSF clocks, which
is a little sad, in both senses of the term.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Interesting it certainly is, even if the timing and weather for this time
ofyear is just about as bad as it could be for me personally, especially as
the past week has been pretty nice down here. Come Sunday when I want the
weather to behave for just a couple of days.....

From the last MO Fax charts that I saw, it looks as if Monday might not be
as bad as it was looking it would be a couple of days ago, if that low gets
that little bit further east away from us...

Jim, Bournemouth

I have a battery clock in the kichen, the rest have to be wound up. Never heard
of MSF clocks till now!

Will.
--

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
ups.com...
Susan Powell, R4 1257 pm, mentioned there may well be 2 to 3
inches of rain over southern England tomorrow and Monday. We'll see.
Also, it is certainly going to be cold early next week and I wouldn't
bet against a max below 9°C here. MSF are now making a little less of
it than UKMO with the Low less deep and a different distribution of
rain compared to what one could expect from the Met Office charts.
Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.
There has been little comment here on this potentially very
interesting spell, more people being interested in MSF clocks, which
is a little sad, in both senses of the term.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 26 May 2007, Tudor Hughes
wrote :

Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.

Where on earth would be the source for such hot weather in that
location??
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 26 May 2007, Tudor Hughes
wrote :

Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.

Where on earth would be the source for such hot weather in that location??

That huge land mass to the south, presumably.
Given the right wind direction and suitably hot air from
far to the south I can imagine it could get pretty hot up
there. Don't temps sometimes get to 30C in Siberia in
mid-summer?
Still, above 35C that far north in late May seems
pushing it a little.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
.. Just tried to work out what sort of rainfall we'd get here
(Bracknell) based on latest output as far as I can see them:

GFS deterministic implies ~15mm by end Monday

.... latest run (12Z) has produced much higher totals - mainly because it
thinks that the northern arc(s) of rain will stall somewhere in this
neck of the woods! Whatever happens, not a particularly pleasant couple
of days.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
Bracknell

Col wrote:


"Paul Hyett" wrote in message
...
In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 26 May 2007, Tudor Hughes
wrote :

Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.

Where on earth would be the source for such hot weather in that
location??

That huge land mass to the south, presumably.
Given the right wind direction and suitably hot air from
far to the south I can imagine it could get pretty hot up
there. Don't temps sometimes get to 30C in Siberia in
mid-summer?
Still, above 35C that far north in late May seems
pushing it a little.....

I recall a three-week spell one June almost forty years ago when north
Norway, Finland, Russia, had max temperatures into the 30s. Minima were in
the mid-20s. Here, it was dull, wet, and temperatures struggled to get into
double figures.

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

In uk.sci.weather on Sat, 26 May 2007, Col
wrote :

Meanwhile, in NW Russia, eg St Petersburg, temperatures will probably
exceed 35°C.

Where on earth would be the source for such hot weather in that location??

That huge land mass to the south, presumably.
Given the right wind direction and suitably hot air from
far to the south I can imagine it could get pretty hot up
there.

But on the pressure maps I've seen, the wind direction there is not from
the south.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)